Bitcoin price prediction: $75,000 support in focus as BTC trades flat

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Bitcoin slides 0.44% today to $77,482

Highlights

US spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling roughly 14,000 BTC for the week ended May 21, 2026, reflecting institutional selling pressure.
The American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 proposes a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, signaling potential for large federal BTC acquisitions if passed.
BTC trades under technical resistance with strong downward momentum, high probability of further declines, and an expected five-day range of $75,000–$81,000.

ETF outflows and corporate holdings as institutional sentiment shifts

US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded outflows totaling approximately 14,000 BTC during the week ending May 21, 2026, marking a clear shift away from sustained institutional inflows and exerting direct selling pressure through regulated instruments. On the regulatory front, the American Reserve Modernization Act of 2026 was introduced in Congress, proposing the formation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and authorizing large federal acquisitions over the next five years; the measure's policy effects remain contingent on legislative progress. Meanwhile, SpaceX disclosed in its S-1 filing that it retained 18,712 bitcoin on its balance sheet, providing confirmation of persistent corporate treasury exposure though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Consolidation persists as intraday indicators underline ongoing selling

BTC is consolidating between $77,327.28 and $77,900 for today, with price positioned below the SMA-20 ($79,448.85) and above the SMA-50 ($76,220.88); SMA-200 stands higher at $80,972.23. The Ichimoku Kijun is observed at $78,893.76, marking immediate resistance. D1 MACD readings are neutral, while ADX signals weak trend conviction with low values. Momentum oscillators such as Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power (BBP) flag oversold conditions; both RSI and CCI remain in sell zones, emphasizing broad selling presence intraday.

Downside risk elevated as volatility confines likely trading range

Over the next five trading sessions, typical volatility is expected to keep BTC within a band of $75,000 to $81,000. There is a high probability of continued downside, estimated above 80%, with gains considered less likely. The central scenario is for price to consolidate sideways within this range, while a breakout above the $78,900 resistance would open upside targeting $81,000. Renewed breakdowns below $75,000 would expose BTC to further losses toward subsequent medium-term supports.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees downside risks prevailing for Bitcoin despite rising regulatory attention and visible corporate holdings. Outflows from US spot bitcoin ETFs mark a sharp shift in institutional sentiment, while technicals confirm broad selling and weak trend conviction. Regulatory news and adoption headlines are meaningful but lack immediate impact at this stage. "As long as outflows persist and price holds below $78,900, I remain defensively positioned and see little reason to chase upside here."

Earlier, analysts noted that Bitcoin remained in a prolonged consolidation phase with notable downside risks amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The current environment both confirms persistent selling pressure and introduces a potential inflection point, with market participants advised to monitor the $78,900 resistance for any signs of a decisive breakout or continued consolidation.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.