Bitcoin climbs as US House 20-year lockup bill reduces supply risk

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Bitcoin gains 2.13% to $77,013 today

Highlights

A U.S. House bill proposes a 20-year government-held Bitcoin lockup and quarterly proof-of-reserve audits, reducing future sell pressure from seized coins.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw six consecutive days of $1.26 billion outflows, with high Treasury yields and liquidations fostering risk aversion.
Bitcoin faces sustained selling pressure, with technical signals pointing bearish and likely range-bound movement between $74,000 and $80,500 over five days.

Sell pressure limited as U.S. legislation offsets ETF outflows

A key development for Bitcoin comes from the U.S. House, which introduced a bill mandating a 20-year lockup of government-held Bitcoin, alongside quarterly proof-of-reserve audits—a move that removes potential sell pressure from seized assets and adds a layer of regulatory assurance for market participants. Institutional sentiment has been mixed, as U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded six straight days of outflows totaling $1.26 billion, resulting in $400 million of leveraged position liquidations, contributing to a cautious trading environment. Elevated U.S. Treasury yields (30-year at 5.17%) are also weighing on large-scale allocations, as tighter liquidity increases the opportunity cost for holding Bitcoin. Secondary to these, easing yet still-uncertain U.S.-Iran negotiations have trimmed the immediate geopolitical risk premium in Bitcoin, leaving markets sensitive to further headlines.

Neutral momentum amid resistance cluster and mild oversold signals

BTC faces nearby technical constraints, trading below the SMA-20 ($79,196.28) and Ichimoku Kijun resistance at $78,598.70, while holding slightly above the SMA-50 ($76,587.64) but still beneath the SMA-200 ($80,692.85). This setup highlights $78,600–$79,200 as a band of resistance, with support forming near $76,600 and the lower boundary of the short-term volatility range near $74,000. On daily momentum indicators, MACD and ADX show neutral readings, while RSI is at 45.56 and CCI at –121.98, reflecting mild oversold conditions. Indicators such as Stoch RSI and Bull/Bear Power align with current selling pressure, despite price action moving toward session highs.

Rangebound bias persists as resistance curbs upside potential

Over the coming week, BTC is likely to remain rangebound within a volatility band of $74,000–$80,500. A breakout above the Ichimoku resistance near $78,600 could see upward extension toward $80,500, but the probability of a sustained rally is low given prevailing bearish weekly trend signals. The base scenario points to mostly sideways trading, while failure to hold $76,600 support would raise the risk of a move lower, targeting $74,000 on renewed selling.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the U.S. House bill on government-held Bitcoin as a constructive regulatory signal. However, he notes that six days of ETF outflows and persistent elevated Treasury yields keep institutional sentiment weak. Technically, resistance around $78,600–$79,200 limits upside, while a base case of sideways movement dominates unless $76,600 breaks. "Until we see sustained inflows or a decisive move above key resistance, BTC remains capped by both technical and macro headwinds."

Earlier, analysts noted that ongoing institutional outflows and mixed momentum signals were keeping Bitcoin under broad selling pressure, with regulatory shifts contributing to a cautious outlook. The current landscape reinforces this bias as ETF liquidations and macro headwinds persist, making a breakout above $78,600 the pivotal signal for a potential shift away from the prevailing rangebound and downside risks.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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