Bitcoin price prediction: $78,600 resistance in focus as BTC advances 1.77%

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Bitcoin rises 1.77% today to $76,822

Highlights

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.26 billion between May 15 and May 22, reflecting near-term institutional pullback.
BlackRock's IBIT remains the top ETF with $61.1 billion in assets amid selective rotation, as Bank of America increases Bitcoin ETF exposure and pares back Ethereum and Solana holdings.
Bitcoin faces selling pressure, holding below key moving averages; forecasts point to a likely consolidation between $75,000 and $78,500 over the next week.

Institutional positioning shifts as ETF outflows pressure sentiment

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs registered substantial net outflows totaling approximately $1.26 billion over six trading sessions from May 15 to May 22, indicating a significant reduction in institutional liquidity and dampening near-term demand for Bitcoin. Despite these outflows, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust remains the dominant ETF with $61.1 billion in net assets, suggesting continued institutional preference for Bitcoin exposure even as overall ETF assets under management dropped below $100 billion. Bank of America’s recent regulatory filing showed a targeted increase in its stake in the IBIT Bitcoin ETF alongside reduced exposure to Ethereum and Solana products, reflecting selective rotation among major cryptocurrencies. A newly introduced bill in the U.S. House that would restrict government-held Bitcoin sales for twenty years underscores ongoing regulatory initiatives affecting the asset’s long-term supply dynamics.

Momentum mixed as resistance looms above oversold signals

BTC is currently positioned just above the 50-day SMA at $76,587.64, while trading below both the 20-day SMA at $79,196.28 and the long-term 200-day SMA at $80,692.85. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart stands at $78,598.70, presenting near-term resistance, while support is anchored just under current prices at the 50-day SMA. Momentum indicators present a mixed outlook: the MACD is neutral to slightly negative and the ADX also signals a neutral trend at low levels. The D1 RSI and CCI both register mild oversold conditions, while Stoch RSI and BBP indicate selling dominance. The Awesome Oscillator remains negative, in line with prevailing downward bias, but a bullish shift in the daily HMA points to short-term upside potential.

Downside bias persists as range-bound outlook dominates

For the next five trading days, price action is expected to remain within a typical volatility band of $75,000 to $78,500, based on current momentum and the normalized weekly forecast. While the probability of a sustained move higher remains below 20%, with only the weekly 200-day MA providing a bullish read, most weekly momentum indicators suggest a bias toward further downside. The baseline scenario points to range-bound consolidation between immediate support and resistance, with any breakout above $78,600 opening the door to a bullish scenario, while a fall below $75,000 would heighten the risk of accelerated selling.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes the recent ETF outflows signal short-term caution among institutional players, yet the dominant position of BlackRock’s IBIT and selective investor rotation reflect enduring appetite for Bitcoin. He sees structural support softening but not breaking, as macro and regulatory developments keep long-term sentiment constructive. Momentum signals are mixed, pointing to sideways action with a slight upside bias if $75,000 support holds. "I remain optimistic for Bitcoin above $75,000, as the current macro and institutional landscape still favors medium-term resilience despite temporary liquidity pressure."

Earlier, analysts noted that a combination of regulatory pressure and weak technical momentum was keeping Bitcoin under broad selling pressure amid loss of retail access points and cautious sentiment. The current article reinforces this bearish overhang by highlighting ongoing institutional outflows and mixed momentum signals, with traders advised to watch for a decisive move above $78,600 or below $75,000 to determine the next directional break.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.