Indonesia blocks Polymarket over bets on president exit

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Indonesia blocks Polymarket

What bets angered the authorities

The government’s response was triggered by political bets linked to Prabowo’s presidency. A few days before the block, Polymarket launched a market where users could predict whether the Indonesian leader would leave office before the end of his term.

One such market was launched on May 21. It allowed users to bet on whether Prabowo would leave office before several future dates, including May 31, June 30, and Dec. 31, 2026. His five-year presidential term is supposed to run until October 2029.

Trading volume on the market exceeded $46,000. Participants priced the probability of Prabowo leaving office by May 31 at 1%, by June 30 at 2%, and by the end of 2026 at 18%.

The ministry’s statement did not directly mention the prediction market on the president’s early exit. Instead, the agency broadly characterized Polymarket as a gambling platform operating in violation of Indonesian law.

Komdigi said the block was a measure to protect the public, especially young people and users of the national digital space. According to the ministry, access was restricted not only to Polymarket but also to similar services suspected of facilitating online gambling.

The ban in Indonesia is part of broader regulatory pressure on prediction markets. Supporters of such platforms argue that they help track public expectations and collective forecasts on political, economic, and other events. Critics, however, say these services too closely resemble online betting and may create risks of market manipulation as well as insider trading.

India had previously restricted access to Polymarket as well. As a result, the list of jurisdictions where the platform is blocked has exceeded 30 countries. At the same time, Polymarket recently signaled interest in obtaining regulatory approval in select markets, including Japan.

How the prediction market Is structured

The prediction market can be roughly divided into several segments. The first includes crypto-oriented platforms such as Polymarket, where settlements are conducted in digital assets and users bet on the outcomes of political, economic, sports, and other events.

The second includes regulated platforms such as Kalshi, which try to operate closer to the financial derivatives model and obtain approval from regulators. Separate from these are projects such as PredictIt, which focuses on political forecasts, as well as Manifold and Metaculus, where the emphasis is not so much on real-money trading as on collective forecasting and probability assessment.

As a reminder, Polymarket is seeking CFTC approval to regain access to the US market.

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