Polkadot ticks up as sellers maintain control by the CCI indicator: weekly analysis

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Polkadot rises 0.56% this week

Highlights

Polkadot remains under sustained medium- and long-term selling pressure, persistently below key moving averages on the weekly chart.
Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX, confirm ongoing bearish sentiment, with no oscillators signaling an impending reversal.
DOT is expected to stay range-bound between $1.21 and $1.29 over the next week, with a downward move more probable than a breakout.

Validator self-stake mandate and shorter unbonding spur security upgrade

Polkadot is undergoing a major network upgrade with Referendum 1890, which requires all validators to self-stake a minimum of 10,000 DOT tokens by May 31. This change aims to improve network security by shifting slashing risk to validators and making staking safer for smaller holders. The upgrade will also reduce the DOT unbonding period from 28 days to between 24 and 48 hours, further improving staking flexibility.

Persistent downside signals as technicals reinforce bearish momentum this week

On the weekly chart, DOT remains below all key moving averages, keeping dynamic resistance at the MA-20 and MA-50. Weekly support is found near the $1.21 area, with resistance at $1.29. Momentum indicators including the MACD and ADX continue to point to downside risk, while the weekly RSI remains weak, the Stochastic RSI is neutral, and the CCI confirms seller control. The negative Bull/Bear Power and a neutral Awesome Oscillator reading underscore a bearish-to-neutral technical environment.

Range-bound trading favored as bearish bias persists for next week

Over the next 7 days, DOT is expected to remain range-bound between $1.21 and $1.29, tracking recent weekly volatility. There is a low probability of a bullish breakout, as none of the key weekly indicators signal a reversal, and overall momentum stays negative. A move above $1.29 could bring minor relief if buying interest emerges, but a drop below $1.21 would reinforce selling and open the way for fresh lows. The baseline scenario is continued sideways trading under bearish pressure.

Previously it was reported that Polkadot faced continued bearish momentum and risk of further declines amid shifting tokenomics and muted sentiment. This outlook is strengthened by persistent technical weakness and the network’s latest validator reforms, with downside risk heightened if DOT fails to maintain support above the $1.21 level in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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