Monero climbs 10.76% as $120 million USDT inflow and regulatory scrutiny raise volatility: weekly outlook

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Monero gains 10.76% this week

Highlights

Monero rebounded sharply, gaining 10.76% for the week, but faces resistance with price stalling below short-term moving averages.
Technical indicators are mixed, reflecting uncertainty—MACD remains bearish, while ADX and Stochastic RSI suggest short-term buying interest.
XMR is expected to consolidate between $325 and $360, with a 75% probability of decline versus further gains.

Large USDT-linked Monero purchases drive regulatory spotlight over the week

Blockchain investigator ZachXBT identified a $120 million USDT transfer that was split across wallets and exchanges before being used for significant Monero purchases. Tether responded by freezing approximately $72 million in USDT linked to the suspicious activity, while $48 million was estimated to have already been moved into Monero. These events have drawn regulatory attention to the privacy coin sector and highlighted challenges in tracking transactions once they enter Monero’s privacy layer.

Mixed signals and high volatility drive technical uncertainty this week

On the weekly (W1) timeframe, XMR shows mixed technical signals. It trades below the MA-20 and MA-50, indicating short to medium-term weakness, but stays firmly above the MA-200, which acts as strong support. Recent volatility for the week is high at 42.10%, while momentum indicators conflict: MACD remains in Sell territory, the ADX suggests a strengthening trend (Buy), and oscillators such as RSI and CCI reflect selling pressure or neutrality. Stochastic RSI diverges with a Strong Buy signal, and Bull/Bear Power is overbought but modestly positive, pointing to a recent rebound amid technical uncertainty.

Consolidation likely as only one momentum signal supports upside next week

For the next 7 days, XMR is expected to consolidate, with a likely trading range between $325 and $360 as volatility begins to ease. Current weekly indicators assign a 75% probability of decline and a 25% probability of further gains, given that only one out of four major momentum signals is supportive. The baseline outlook is for sideways consolidation, with potential for a breakout above $360 in a bullish scenario or a move below $325 towards lower supports if selling resumes.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Monero posted a sharp 10.76% rebound over the week but is still encountering technical headwinds below the MA-20 and MA-50. He observes that conflicting momentum signals and heightened volatility reflect uncertain sentiment, with recent news flows about large-scale USDT inflows and renewed regulatory attention intensifying the mood. With 75% probability favoring consolidation or downside, he believes tactical opportunities are most appealing near support. Turakhiya sees a narrow window for bullish follow-through if the price breaks above $360, but otherwise expects a sideways grind between $325 and $360. "This week, I’m watching for sentiment-driven swings, but will stay defensive unless we secure a breakout above $360."

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero faced persistent selling pressure despite episodes of elevated volatility and heightened regulatory scrutiny following suspicious USDT inflows. The current outlook adds weight to this view by highlighting another week of technically uncertain, range-bound trade, with a close below $325 now presenting a downside risk that could invite further momentum-driven selling.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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