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A Polymarket user earned approximately $9 million in profit after a surprising draw between Spain and Cape Verde at the FIFA World Cup. The trade has drawn attention from blockchain analysts, who are trying to determine whether it was an exceptionally accurate prediction or the result of access to non-public information.
The match ended in a 0-0 draw, with World Cup debutants Cape Verde holding one of the tournament favorites. Before kickoff, bookmakers gave the African side little chance of avoiding defeat, while Spain was widely viewed as a leading contender for the title.
Betting against the favorite
Following the unexpected result, a Polymarket trader operating under the pseudonym fishalive generated roughly $9 million in profit within a matter of hours.According to Lookonchain, the wallet was created only this month. The trader placed two bets: one against a Spanish victory and another on Cape Verde not losing by more than 2.5 goals.
After the match ended, both positions paid out. Data from Polymarket shows total winnings exceeded $13 million from an initial investment of approximately $4 million.
Another trader lost $1 million
On the opposite side of the trade was a user known as betoor619. The trader wagered about $1.1 million on a Spain victory when the market assigned roughly a 92% probability to that outcome.Even if Spain had won, the maximum potential profit would have been only about $85,000. Following the final whistle, the trader lost nearly the entire stake.
Notably, the account had never previously recorded a profit or loss greater than $9,000 on a single trade.
The case quickly attracted attention from crypto market participants and analysts, as bets of this size on highly unlikely outcomes remain relatively rare.
Prediction markets draw regulatory attention
The story has once again highlighted prediction markets, whose popularity has grown significantly in recent years. Supporters argue that financial incentives help participants uncover information more quickly and assess the probability of future events more accurately.Critics, however, contend that such platforms may create opportunities for the use of non-public information. As a result, large profits tied to unexpected events frequently attract scrutiny from analysts and regulators.
Earlier, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed revisiting rules governing prediction markets. The initiative seeks to clarify the regulatory framework for contracts linked to political events, military conflicts, and other matters of public interest.
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