Polkadot trades in lower recent range as sellers maintain control: weekly review

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Polkadot gains 2.96% this week

Highlights

Polkadot remains under significant selling pressure, consistently trading below key technical resistance levels despite a minor weekly rebound.
Momentum indicators confirm a strong bearish trend, with sellers dominating and oversold signals emerging across multiple oscillators.
DOT is expected to remain rangebound within $0.88 to $1.07, with a bearish break below $0.88 currently more probable than a recovery.

Bearish signals intensify over the week amid oversold conditions

Weekly technical analysis for DOT shows a notably bearish landscape: both the MACD and ADX on the W1 timeframe remain deeply in sell territory and underscore ongoing negative momentum. The RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI indicators are registering oversold readings, suggesting that sellers control the market, even as DOT attempts a modest rebound. Weekly volatility stands at 11.26%, and key resistance levels are set at the MA-20 ($1.266) and MA-50 ($2.370), while immediate downside focus remains near recent lows.

Downside risk persists next week as technicals reinforce rangebound outlook

For the next 7 days, Polkadot is expected to trade in a range between $0.88 and $1.07, with the bias skewed towards further downside given that all four key W1 indicators remain bearish. The probability of a sustained move higher is less than 20% unless indicators shift decisively into neutral or buy signals. In the baseline scenario, DOT will likely remain rangebound, testing minor support and resistance; a bullish reversal would require a strong momentum shift above $1.07, while a break below $0.88 remains the path of least resistance in the current setup.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes that Polkadot remained below all major weekly moving averages this week, with technicals reflecting persistent bearish momentum. He sees the oversold oscillator readings as a potential early warning for volatility, but negative MACD and ADX signals indicate sellers are firmly in control. Mehta believes that unless there is a decisive shift above $1.07, downside remains the path of least resistance in the coming week. "With the technical landscape so negative, I am watching for a possible contrarian bounce, but any rally is likely to be sold unless momentum flips — for now, the probabilities still favor range-trading or new lows below $0.88."

Earlier, analysts noted that Polkadot was exhibiting renewed bullish momentum amid a shift from persistent bearishness to potential consolidation. However, the latest weekly technical setup now signals robust downside risk, making a decisive move below $0.88 a key level to monitor for further deterioration.

Source of Data: DOT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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