GRAM declines with price held in upper part of recent range: weekly report

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Gram slides 2.88% this week

Highlights

GRAM continues to trade below key moving averages, confirming a prevailing bearish trend across medium- and long-term horizons.
Momentum indicators show weak buying interest, with sell signals outweighing buy signals and volatility remaining elevated at 17.06% weekly.
Next week’s price is expected to stay within the $1.38 to $1.66 range, with downside risk favored unless a breakout above resistance occurs.

Anticipated Gram wallet launch fuels expectations for user-driven demand

Telegram has officially confirmed the upcoming launch of a native, non-custodial Gram wallet, relaunching the former Toncoin as Gram. This move will grant Telegram's user base access to self-custody crypto services and TON-based decentralized applications on a broad scale. Market expectations are focused on increased user engagement once the wallet is deployed across Telegram’s entire ecosystem.

Dominant resistance caps recovery as technicals suggest continued weakness

On the weekly (W1) chart, GRAM continues to trade well below the MA-20 ($1.5757) and MA-50 ($1.8694) levels, which both act as significant resistance and confirm ongoing downside momentum. The Ichimoku Kijun line is positioned far above spot, further emphasizing resistance at higher levels. The MACD and Bull/Bear Power both generate sell signals, while the ADX signals a possible short-term bounce due to momentum divergence. Weekly RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI remain neutral to bearish, suggesting low momentum with no clear reversal signals. Support is found near $1.38 with the closest resistance at $1.66, corresponding to this week’s upper range and the MA-20.

Sideways consolidation likely with low breakout odds next week

For the next 7 days, GRAM is expected to remain in a broad sideways corridor between $1.38 and $1.66, consistent with recent weekly volatility. Technical indicators offer only a 25% chance of a bullish breakout, with most signals leaning towards continued downward or rangebound movement. The baseline scenario anticipates ongoing consolidation unless a move above $1.66 triggers renewed buying. A breakdown below $1.38 would likely confirm further declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees a constructive setup for GRAM this week despite recent price weakness. He believes the confirmed launch of Telegram’s native GRAM wallet is a major sentiment and adoption catalyst that could spark renewed demand as deployment unfolds. While price action remains capped below key resistance at $1.66 and technicals still favor consolidation, the broader structure offers clear opportunities should momentum shift. Over the coming week, an upside break above $1.66 could ignite fresh buying and change the tactical landscape. "With fundamentals turning positive as Telegram rolls out its wallet, I expect increased adoption to eventually support higher prices — patience here could be rewarded if bulls reclaim the $1.66 level."

Previously it was reported that Telegram’s planned integration of a native, non-custodial Gram wallet could make self-custody cryptocurrency features accessible to a massive global user base. The current trading landscape suggests consolidation remains the base case, but traders should closely watch the $1.66 resistance for any signs of an upside breakout as platform deployment progresses.

Source of Data: GRAM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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