GRAM recovery stalls as wallet momentum fades
On-chain activity across TON remains steady, but declining TVL and stablecoin market capitalization point to a lack of fresh capital. GRAM is holding near $1.43, but a high-volume breakout above $1.55 is needed to revive the recovery.
On-chain indicators across the TON ecosystem remain mixed. Over the past 24 hours, the network processed around 3.08 million transactions, with 99,147 active addresses. DEX volume reached $4.54 million over 24 hours and $31.42 million over seven days, an increase of 12.93%.
Meanwhile, the ecosystem’s TVL declined by around 9% over the week to $62.36 million, while stablecoin market capitalization fell by 2.48% to $790.53 million. This points to sustained network activity but does not yet confirm a broad inflow of fresh capital.
A high-volume breakout could revive the bullish scenario
The primary bullish scenario from the previous analysis was not confirmed, as GRAM failed to hold above $1.55. Instead, the alternative scenario played out: the price fell back below $1.51 and corrected toward the projected support at $1.43.The $1.51–$1.55 zone now acts as resistance again, with the 200-day SMA also running through this area. A decisive breakout and sustained move above $1.55 would allow buyers to regain momentum and open the way toward the 50-day SMA in the $1.61–$1.63 area.
A breakout accompanied by elevated volume on the daily candle would provide stronger confirmation of the bullish scenario.
Key support remains at $1.43. A break below this level would increase the likelihood of a decline toward the next local support around $1.36.
GRAM awaits confirmation from user activity
The Gram Wallet integration remains an important medium-term catalyst, but the initial news-driven momentum has already faded. A sustainable recovery will require clear evidence of rising user activity and fresh capital inflows, as well as a sustained move above $1.55.
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