Bitcoin options trade targets $95,000 by end-October as bullish positioning builds

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Bitcoin options target $95K

Highlights

A prominent long call butterfly options trade targeting $95,000 bitcoin by Oct. 30 expiry was executed in five blocks with a $3.17 million net initial payment.
Trade structure benefits if bitcoin settles between $90,000 and $100,000 at expiry, but expires worthless if outside that range, risking total premium loss.
Crypto options markets price significant volatility, with options-implied one-standard-deviation moves to Sept. 27 at 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether, and 5.0% for bitcoin.

Options structure points to end-October target

As reported by CoinDesk, the most prominent bitcoin options trade in the past 24 hours is a long call butterfly designed to benefit if BTC settles near $95,000 at the Oct. 30 expiry.

The position is built by buying $90,000 calls and $100,000 calls while selling twice as many $95,000 calls. According to data source Laevitas, the trade is executed in five blocks, each containing 1,000 long $90,000 calls, 2,000 short $95,000 calls and 1,000 long $100,000 calls, for a combined net initial payment of $3.17 million.

The strategy generates its best outcome if bitcoin is around $95,000 at expiry and has a positive gross payoff between $90,000 and $100,000. If BTC finishes outside that range, the structure expires worthless and the trader loses the $3.17 million paid to establish the position.

Broader derivatives market shows bullish and volatile tone

The trade suggests the buyer is positioning for bitcoin to climb from roughly $85,000 to $95,000 by the end of October. That view broadly matches the daily chart, which shows limited obvious resistance between $85,000 and $98,000, with no major prior stalling or consolidation zone in that range.

Bullish positioning is also visible beyond the butterfly trade. Traders are increasing demand for upside exposure through call options, lifting short-term risk reversals, while Laser Digital says in a note shared with CoinDesk that front-end risk reversals swing sharply in favor of calls during bitcoin's move to $85,000 before easing somewhat.

The wider crypto options market is also pricing substantial volatility across major tokens. Coinbase Markets says on Monday that options imply one-standard-deviation moves through Sept. 27 of 8.9% for XRP, 8.0% for SOL, 6.9% for ether and 5.0% for bitcoin, indicating the highest expected volatility risk among those assets is in XRP rather than a directional bet.

Our earlier article on ether’s technical setup highlighted a bull-flag breakout after ETH moved above the Sept. 11 high near $2,661, pointing to an initial upside target around $3,050. We also noted that a pause near $2,775–$2,825 could occur on the way up, while the rally’s health depended on holding key support zones, with a sustained push potentially extending toward the $3,395–$3,445 area.

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