Toncoin price struggles to reclaim $3.20 after channel breakdown
Toncoin is trading near $3.13 on July 24 after briefly recovering from a sharp sell-off earlier this week. The cryptocurrency slipped below a multi-week ascending channel and remains under pressure, with price action capped beneath key exponential moving averages.
Highlights
- Toncoin trades near $3.13 after breaking below rising channel structure
- EMA cluster between $3.17 and $3.24 now acts as strong resistance
- Coinglass data shows $2.59M net outflow on July 24, signaling sustained selling pressure
Despite holding the $3.05 support, weak momentum and spot flow data suggest any recovery could be short-lived unless buying conviction strengthens. Toncoin fell below its rising channel support at $3.28–$3.30 on Monday, triggering a swift decline to the $3.05 horizontal base. The 1-hour chart shows continued rejection beneath the 20/50/100/200 EMAs, now clustered between $3.17 and $3.24. This zone has become a critical resistance area, limiting bullish recovery attempts.
TON price forecast (Source: TradingView)
The relative strength index has bounced to 41.56 from oversold levels but remains below the 50 neutral threshold. Without a decisive reclaim of $3.20, momentum is expected to stay sluggish. If the $3.05 zone fails on another retest, the next likely support lies near $2.95 and $2.88, where previous accumulation zones may offer temporary relief.
Spot outflows reinforce downside pressure
On-chain spot flow data from Coinglass reinforces the bearish narrative. Toncoin registered a $2.59 million net outflow on July 24, continuing a series of consistent red prints dating back to mid-June. These outflows suggest persistent supply-side dominance and lack of sustained demand absorption on spot exchanges. Unless this dynamic reverses, technical rallies are likely to fade quickly. Reclaiming the $3.24 resistance zone would be Toncoin’s first bullish signal, potentially allowing the asset to revisit the mid-$3.40s. However, this scenario would require both increased volume and stronger structure recovery.
In our earlier analysis, we highlighted Toncoin’s vulnerability near the $3.30 region and pointed to $3.05 as key support. The breakdown and bounce played out as expected, with the asset now facing an uphill battle to regain bullish momentum unless volume and demand return decisively.
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