Toncoin tests key breakout level as triangle resistance and 200-day EMA converge near $3.59

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Toncoin price action triangle breakout

Highlights

- Toncoin trades near $3.42, testing multi-month triangle resistance and 200-day EMA

- RSI stands above 64, with short-term EMAs supporting bullish momentum

- Exchange outflows continue, but with declining intensity, hinting at easing selling pressure

Traders are eyeing the $3.50 to $3.59 resistance zone closely, where both the triangle's upper boundary and the 200-day EMA intersect. This area presents a pivotal test for a sustained bullish reversal.

Technical structure signals strength but breakout still unconfirmed

TON's daily chart reveals that the token has reclaimed the 20, 50, and 100-day exponential moving averages, now clustered between $3.09 and $3.18. This area has been acting as a dynamic support base throughout July, allowing the price to inch upward toward the triangle's upper trendline. The RSI stands above 64, suggesting bullish momentum is gaining strength without overextension. However, volume remains subdued, and traders are looking for a decisive daily close above $3.59 with strong participation to confirm a full breakout.

TON price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

If confirmed, upside targets could stretch to $3.90 and $4.25, zones aligned with previous swing highs. On the downside, failure to reclaim the 200 EMA could result in a pullback toward $3.18 or even the psychological $3 mark, which served as a support pivot in June.

On-chain flows taper, but investor caution remains

Despite the improving technical setup, Toncoin’s exchange flows remain modestly negative. On July 28, the net outflow stood at 378,090 TON, continuing a trend of steady profit-taking seen since Q2. However, the declining intensity of these outflows suggests weakening selling pressure, offering bulls a potential window to build conviction. A flip to positive inflows could further validate the breakout attempt and attract fresh momentum.

Toncoin stands at a key inflection point as it approaches a potential breakout from a multi-month triangle formation. While price action and indicators support the bullish case, confirmation above the $3.59 level remains critical. Reduced outflows hint at stabilizing sentiment, but broader market conditions and Bitcoin’s trajectory may still influence near-term direction.

In earlier Toncoin forecasts, we identified $3 as a crucial accumulation zone following repeated EMA-based rebounds. This latest move marks TON’s second attempt to clear triangle resistance in July, with volume and structural alignment now more favorable.

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