Will BTC break through resistance? Why Bitcoin price prediction favors a bullish move

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Bitcoin Rises 1.06% to $112,200 Today

Highlights

Bitcoin is trading at $112,200, holding above the MA-20 and MA-200 but facing resistance near the MA-50 at $114,804.73.
Bitcoin whales sold over 112,000 BTC in September 2025, the largest net distribution by large holders since 2022, as ETF outflows and capital rotation into altcoins continued.
Technical indicators are mixed with bullish bias: probability of price increase is above 80%, with BTC projected to trade between $116,171.49 and $117,199.19 over the next five sessions.

Whale selling pressures sentiment as ETFs see outflows, altcoins gain

Bitcoin whales have sold over 112,000 BTC so far in September 2025, marking the largest net distribution by large holders since 2022 and indicating a shift in short-term sentiment. Institutional activity has contrasted with this trend, as Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows in August while capital rotated into major altcoins and Bitcoin's market dominance declined. Traders remain cautious as the price holds above key support despite volatility and recent profit-taking from large investors. Broader macro factors and the potential for renewed ETF inflows could impact direction in the coming weeks.

Mixed momentum signals drive uncertainty amid diverging technical boundaries

The closest resistance for BTC aligns with the MA-50 at $114,804.73, while Ichimoku Kijun support appears around $113,235.91, marking the next dynamic support to monitor. Momentum signals are mixed — the ADX on the daily chart indicates trend strength with a buy signal, but the MACD and the Awesome Oscillator both suggest bearish momentum. The RSI (51.17) is moderately positive, while the Stoch RSI indicates overbought conditions and CCI is neutral, illustrating divergence among overbought/oversold signals. Bull/Bear Power remains neutral, and while BTC opened with a slight gap up and trades near the top of today’s $111,111 – $112,098.70 range, the divergence among technical indicators points to uncertainty beneath the surface.

Upward price bias dominates short-term but hinges on resistance breakout

Over the next five trading days, BTC is projected to trade between $116,171.49 and $117,199.19, with an upward bias supported by three out of four major weekly indicators. The probability of a price increase is above 80%, while a decline is considered very unlikely. If BTC stays range-bound, expect consolidation between resistance at $114,800 and support at $113,200. A breakout above $114,800 could reinforce bullish momentum, but a fall below $113,200 may trigger deeper selling toward lower moving average levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin’s current structure as moderately bullish in the short and long term, but notes that resistance at the $114,800 level and recent whale selling keep risk elevated. He believes the probability of an upward move remains high — above 80% — yet divergence among technical signals and large holder distribution require a defensive posture. "I remain cautiously optimistic above $113,200, but will wait for a confirmed move above $114,800 before increasing exposure or shifting out of a capital-protection stance."

Previously it was reported that South Africa’s Altvest Capital planned to raise significant funds and establish Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve. The company’s initiative marked a pivotal moment as the first listed African firm to fully integrate Bitcoin into its core corporate strategy.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.