Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces deeper correction risk below key EMAs
Bitcoin price opened the new week, recording its heaviest daily selloff in September. The move highlights a shift in sentiment after a month-long uptrend that has so far supported steady gains.
From this week's opening level of $115,340, price fell sharply to $111,800, marking a 12-day low and a 3% decline. Volumes expanded during the move, raising concern that the retracement from last week’s peak may now be developing into a broader bearish reversal.
Highlights
- Bitcoin tests 100-day EMA support as momentum signals stronger downside pressure.
- RSI confirms bearish shift while fear index points toward weakening sentiment.
- BTC decline cuts September rally gains to just 4.3% today.
The technical picture has shifted. Price slipped below both the 20 and 50-day exponential moving averages, placing them overhead as immediate resistance levels. Support was found at the 100-day EMA, positioned near $111,800, where buyers staged a modest rebound during the European session, lifting price back toward $112,700. This recovery narrowed the day’s loss to 2%, yet the balance of momentum still appears tilted toward sellers.
Bitcoin price dynamic (June - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview
The 100-day EMA is a particularly important line at this stage. It sits between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels of September’s advance, making it a confluence point where market direction could be decided. If this support fails, the decline risks accelerating and erasing more of the month’s earlier 9% rally, which has now narrowed to just 4.3% as of the European session.
Bitcoin sentiment cools as fear and greed index leans toward fear
Momentum indicators reinforce this view. The daily Relative Strength Index has shifted into bearish territory, highlighting pressure on the upside and validating the weakness shown in moving averages. Bitcoin sentiment, tracked by the global fear and greed index, is holding at neutral but leaning toward fear, also suggesting traders are increasingly alert to the risk of extended downside.
For a recovery to take shape, Bitcoin must climb back above the 20 and 50-day EMAs. Those levels, now acting as resistance, are the immediate barriers to restoring bullish momentum. Without such a move, the broader technical structure points toward deeper losses, which could further erode September’s performance and strengthen the case for a more sustained correction. The coming sessions will be defined by how price interacts with the 100-day EMA. Holding above it offers a base for stabilisation and potential recovery, while a break lower would invite more selling pressure and shift focus toward deeper retracement levels.
Bitcoin consolidates near $116,800 as expiry pressures limit upside momentum. Options expiry max pain at $114,000 threatens short-term downside pull.
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