Bitcoin price prediction: BTC holds $120,000 pivot amid $3.36B options expiry

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Sholanke Dele

03.10.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC holds $120,000 pivot amid $3.36B options expiry — Bitcoin $3.36B options expiry threatens upside

Bitcoin price commenced the month of October with sharp gains, climbing more than 6% just within the first two days of the month during the U.S. government shutdown.

The rally lifted price action above the $120,000 psychological barrier to a seven-week high at $121,135, bringing the market within 3% of the all-time peak at $124,500. Sentiment shifted quickly as the Binance global fear and greed index advanced from fear into near greed territory, now standing at 57.

- Bitcoin rally stalls near $124,500 peak after strong early October gains

- Bitcoin holds $120,000 support as options expiry threatens short-term upside

- Traders eye $115,000 level as dealer positioning pressures Bitcoin outlook

By Friday, October 3, momentum slowed. Since the Sydney open, Bitcoin has turned mildly bearish. As of the European session, the price is retesting the $120,000 level as support. The hourly chart shows this zone reinforced by the 20 EMA, strengthening its role as a near term pivot. The immediate challenge now comes from options expiry later today, which has the potential to steer short term direction.

Bitcoin price dynamic (Aug - Sept 2025). Source: tradingview

Data from Deribit highlights that Bitcoin faces $3.36 billion worth of option contracts expiring on Friday. The max pain level, where the largest number of options expire worthless, sits at $115,000. Total open interest for these contracts stands at 27,962, while the put-to-call ratio is 1.13, indicating that puts outnumber calls. Such positioning suggests that dealers may attempt to push the market closer to $115,000 to limit losses, especially if price momentum falters above $120,000.

Bitcoin long/short ratio decline shows bearish bets building into weekend

Traders should therefore monitor positioning carefully. Although Bitcoin is holding above support at $120,000 for now, the long-to-short ratio has declined and is moving toward negative territory. This signals that bearish bets are growing, which could leave the market vulnerable to pressure from option sellers. On the other hand, the fact that price is testing support rather than breaking down shows that buyers are still active at higher levels.

Overall, Bitcoin enters the end of the week at a key test point. The $120,000 level serves as both a technical and psychological anchor. If buyers defend it through the expiry window, the path toward $124,500 could reopen quickly. If not, the weight of expiring options and dealer positioning raises the risk of a pullback toward $115,000. The outcome will provide the clearest indication yet of whether early October’s bullish surge has the strength to carry forward.

Read how Exchange outflows strengthened BTC accumulation despite mid-September sharp correction.

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