TON today news: RSI and oscillators show mixed signals

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Toncoin Slides 3.78% Today

Highlights

Toncoin (TON) trades at $2.74, down 3.78% on the day, remaining below the MA-20 ($2.819), MA-50 ($3.032), and MA-200 ($3.142).
A significant Toncoin token unlock worth approximately $102 million is scheduled for early October 2025, heightening potential supply-driven pressure on market dynamics.
Bearish technicals dominate as TON trades below all major averages, with a low rebound probability and a likely price range of $2.799–$2.802 over the next five days.

Supply pressure mounts as token unlock and volatility reshape sentiment

Toncoin is set for a significant token unlock that will release approximately $102 million worth of tokens in early October 2025, adding supply-driven pressure to its market dynamics. Broader market adjustments and recurring volatility have contributed to recent dips. The ongoing development of Toncoin's utility within the Telegram ecosystem continues to influence trading sentiment.

Bearish momentum persists amid mixed short-term indicator divergence

Technical analysis underscores a bearish bias, with TON trading below all major moving averages and encountering nearest dynamic support around the Ichimoku Kijun at $2.909. The MA-50 at $3.032 serves as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators, including a strongly bearish MACD and Awesome Oscillator, confirm underlying weakness. The ADX remains elevated but diverges with a short-term 'Strong Buy' reading, while RSI at 45.82, a bearish-leaning CCI, and a Stoch RSI indicating overbought daily conditions reflect mixed sentiment. Bollinger Band Position is slightly negative, further affirming sellers' dominance.

Further downside likely as technicals cap rebound odds

For the next five trading days, the likely price range is between $2.799 and $2.802, with an average close near $2.800. The chance of a short-term rebound is low — less than 20% — making further downside more probable. Most signals point to continued consolidation just under resistance, with any bullish reversal hinging on regaining $2.909 (Kijun) or $3.032, which current technicals do not favor. A drop below $2.721 could trigger additional weakness.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, views Toncoin’s persistent weakness below all major moving averages and the looming $102 million token unlock as clear drivers of ongoing selling pressure. He notes that despite development within the Telegram ecosystem, market sentiment remains fragile and technical signals strongly favor sellers. "As long as price remains capped under $2.909, I see no credible sign of reversal — further downside remains my base case."

Previously it was noted that momentum signals are mixed — ADX highlights strong buying interest, but MACD remains in firm sell territory, while RSI at 54 and overbought Stoch RSI above 93 suggest a market at risk of a short-term correction. The article highlighted that price action today shows a modest gain, with trading contained in a narrow range, emphasizing ongoing low volatility and largely sideways movement.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.