TON news: trades at $2.144 — MACD and oscillators signal strong bearish momentum

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Toncoin drops 20.48% today to $2.14

Highlights

Toncoin (TON) trades below key moving averages—MA-20 ($2.70), MA-50 ($2.969), and MA-200 ($3.122)—signaling strong bearish trends across all timeframes.
A sharp 20.48% daily drop followed Donald Trump's October 11 announcement of 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, with market volatility amplifying downward pressure on Toncoin.
With sellers dominating and daily/weekly RSI deeply oversold, Toncoin is expected to consolidate between $2.177 and $2.242, with less than 20% probability of a rebound.

Accelerated selling as Trump trade actions stoke sentiment shift

Toncoin experienced substantial downward pressure after former US President Donald Trump announced 100% duties on Chinese goods and additional restrictions on critical software, triggering a sharp price decline for the asset on October 11. Broader market volatility and price swings have also influenced Toncoin, reflecting ongoing speculation and shifting investor sentiment. Longer-term forecasts suggest the potential for moderate growth but remain subject to external market forces and uncertainty.

Oversold signals diverge from bearish momentum after volatile gap drop

The nearest dynamic support is near $1.88 (Kijun from Ichimoku), while the MA-20 near $2.70 serves as the closest resistance. Momentum signals are mixed. The daily MACD and Awesome Oscillator confirm seller dominance, with ADX showing elevated trend strength. Both daily and weekly RSI readings are deeply oversold and reinforced by CCI and Stoch RSI, while BBP indicates sellers are in control intraday. The price opened with a gap down from the previous close and is currently trading near the midpoint of today’s range, following a sharp daily drop of 20.48%. Volatility is high and sellers have applied pressure after the open. Oscillators highlight oversold territory, yet strong negative momentum persists, creating a divergence between exhaustion signals and the prevailing intraday trend.

Downside risk prevails amid narrow range consolidation outlook

For the next five trading days, the expected price corridor is $2.177 to $2.242. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further downside the more likely scenario. The baseline scenario is consolidation within the narrow range above $2.18. In the bullish case, recovery above $2.24 would be needed to confirm reversal attempts. A break below $2.177 could trigger fresh selling and extend declines further.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees recent US policy announcements as a key macro factor weighing heavily on Toncoin, driving a sharp price drop and heightening volatility. He believes persistent bearish momentum and oversold technical readings indicate near-term risk remains skewed to the downside, despite some exhaustion signals. Consolidation above $2.18 appears likely unless macro sentiment shifts, with further declines possible on a breach of support. "With sentiment under pressure and macro risks elevated, I remain constructive but would wait for clear recovery above $2.24 before considering a reversal in Toncoin’s trend."

Previously it was noted that momentum signals are mixed, as ADX highlights strong buying interest but MACD remains in firm sell territory. The earlier article highlighted that trading was contained in a narrow range, emphasizing ongoing low volatility and largely sideways movement.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.