CoinShares ETP launch — Toncoin drops 2.26% amid bearish price prediction

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Toncoin slides 2.26% today

Highlights

Toncoin (TON) trades at $2.151 after a 2.26% decline, remaining below its MA-20 ($2.194), MA-50 ($2.609), and MA-200 ($3.005), confirming bearish pressure.
CoinShares will launch a staked Toncoin ETP offering a 2% yield to institutional investors, targeting a market with $5.7 billion capitalization amid year-to-date declines.
Technical indicators, including MACD, ADX, and RSI at 37, show strong bearish momentum with a short-term price range between $1.955 and $2.217 and under 20% probability of price increase.

Staked ETP launch aims to shift flows amid market cap losses

CoinShares has announced plans to launch a staked Toncoin Exchange Traded Product (ETP), which will offer a 2% yield to attract institutional participation. This move is taking place as Toncoin's market capitalization stands at approximately $5.7 billion, reflecting significant year-to-date declines. The ETP has the potential to influence FX flows and investor sentiment around Toncoin.

Bearish momentum confirmed as key indicators and moving averages align

Technically, TON continues to show signs of bearish momentum. The price is trading well below all major moving averages, with the Ichimoku Kijun level at $1.713 acting as the nearest dynamic support and resistance at the MA-20, $2.194. Momentum indicators like the MACD and ADX confirm the strength of the downtrend, while RSI at 37 and CCI both signal a selling bias. The Stochastic RSI and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, but Bull/Bear Power gives a slight advantage to buyers intraday despite overall selling pressure.

Downside risk dominates as consolidation persists near key supports

For the short term, the anticipated price range is $1.955–$2.217, centered near $2.086. Given persistent bearish momentum, the probability of a price increase is very low — under 20% — with a further decline more likely. The baseline scenario sees TON consolidating between support at $1.955 and resistance at $2.194, as bearish momentum gradually slows. A breakout above resistance is unlikely, while a fall below support could trigger another wave of selling toward lower levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees that Toncoin remains under significant bearish pressure, failing to retain crucial moving average support levels and posting continued declines in both price and market capitalization. While the CoinShares staked Toncoin ETP introduction could support institutional interest and sentiment in the longer term, the current technical setup offers little optimism as all momentum and trend indicators confirm dominant selling. Kharitonov considers any sustained move above $2.194 highly unlikely in the near term, with further downside risk prevailing unless sentiment and technicals shift decisively. "Given the persistent bearish structure and weak momentum, my base case is for consolidation or renewed downside—until resistance is reclaimed, I remain defensive on TON."

Previously, it was noted that Telegram introduced tokenised stock and ETF trading with wallet integration, aiming to reshape access to global stock markets. Technical indicators reflected uncertainty and a likely sideways consolidation as the asset remained below resistance.

Source of Data: TON Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.