Bearish momentum drags Solana down 3.85% — oversold signals persist

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Solana slides 3.85% today to $135.78

Highlights

VanEck launched its Solana Spot ETF (VSOL) with staking capabilities, fee waivers on the first $1 billion in assets, and SOL Strategies Inc. as staking provider.
Fidelity filed for a Solana ETF listing on the NYSE, following similar launches from Bitwise and Grayscale, increasing institutional competition in Solana exposure.
Forward Industries transferred over $260 million in SOL tokens to Coinbase Prime, while 21Shares amended its Solana ETF filing with several regulatory and product updates.

ETF launches and large transfers shift Solana market structure

VanEck has officially launched its Solana Spot ETF (VSOL), introducing staking capabilities and fee waivers on the first $1 billion in assets, with SOL Strategies Inc. appointed as the staking provider. Fidelity has filed for a Solana ETF listing on the NYSE, following the recent launches of similar funds by Bitwise and Grayscale. Forward Industries, the largest corporate SOL holder, transferred over $260 million in tokens to Coinbase Prime, and 21Shares updated its Solana ETF filing with several regulatory and product changes.

Bearish momentum intensifies despite oversold technical signals

Momentum signals are negative, with D1 ADX at 31.22 confirming a strong sell trend and the MACD on a sell forecast. Oversold conditions are highlighted by the daily RSI (27.35), Stoch RSI (0.00), CCI (-131.71), and negative BBP (-7.59) indicating seller dominance. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the bearish outlook. After opening at $130.80 versus the previous close at $141.22 (a notable gap down), price has rebounded slightly but remains mid-range for the day with considerable intraday volatility and persistent downside pressure since the open. While oversold oscillators suggest the potential for technical bounces, current momentum and intraday tone align with continued weakness.

Further declines likely as upside scenario requires key breakout

For the coming week, the expected trading range is $126.00 to $138.50, normalized to fit within 10% of the current price. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further declines more likely. Baseline scenario anticipates a sideways movement between support and resistance. Under the bullish scenario, SOL would need to close above $138.50 with a break toward $145.00. Should the bearish scenario unfold, a move below $126.00 would expose the next psychological support at $120.00.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees technicals strongly favoring the bears, with SOL trading below all key moving averages and clear signs of seller control. He notes that ETF launches have not shifted the negative momentum, as institutional participation is met with persistent outflows and steep volatility. The base case is for sideways-to-lower price action unless $138.50 is reclaimed, with little optimism for near-term upside. "As long as SOL remains capped below resistance, the risk of further declines outweighs any prospects for a bullish turnaround."

Previously it was noted that Solana had broken its seven-month ascending channel and was resting on a key support cluster as market flows and momentum turned bearish. The news highlighted that price rests on key $135–$140 support while caution prevailed among both retail and institutional traders.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.