US Dollar vs Uzbekistan Som edges lower as bearish technicals persist

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Us dollar vs uzbekistan som slides 0.47%

Highlights

USD/UZS remains under bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages and near session lows at UZS11,804.
Momentum indicators and oscillators align bearish, with an oversold reading and sellers dominating intraday moves.
The pair is expected to fluctuate between UZS11,699 and UZS11,909 over the next five days, with a 75% probability of further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes ongoing downside in USD/UZS with sellers dominating across all timeframes. He highlights the absence of positive macro or sentiment drivers, reinforcing an unfavorable outlook. With oversold technicals and a lack of reversal signals, the risk of deeper losses remains. Kharitonov is critical of the weak momentum strength and sees current levels as fragile. He cautions, "Until buyers reclaim the technical resistance near UZS11,872, any rebound attempts should be viewed with skepticism."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees this dip as positioning the market for new opportunities ahead. While the trend remains bearish, he emphasizes the constructive setup that could unfold if resistance at UZS11,872 breaks. Karapetjanc remains confident that volatility offers setups for nimble traders. "With consolidation near these bands, a decisive move higher will reopen bullish targets and reward proactive strategies," he says.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, believes the current price action signals a pause in downside momentum. He notes that oversold readings and compressed volatility may precede a tactical bounce, but bears still control the larger structure. Mehta concludes, "A break below UZS11,787 opens tactical shorts, but divergence in momentum could set up a quick contrarian rebound."

Bearish technical outlook as downside momentum and oversold signals persist

USD/UZS remains under pressure, with the exchange rate below the MA-20 (UZS11,902), MA-50 (UZS11,976), and MA-200 (UZS12,084), establishing a clear bearish structure. Immediate resistance is seen at UZS11,872, with support at UZS11,787. Momentum indicators confirm the negative bias: MACD continues to signal a sell, ADX reflects a lack of trend strength, and the RSI stands at 42.18, reinforcing selling momentum. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Bull/Bear Power (BBP at -6.88) indicate ongoing oversold conditions, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains negative. USD/UZS is trading near session lows, with daily volatility amplitude at 0.72%, and no clear signs of reversal.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/UZS was entrenched in a sustained bearish trend, with technical conditions favoring further downside. The current analysis supports this view, suggesting that traders should closely monitor the UZS11,787 support level as a decisive break could trigger additional weakness in the pair.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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