USD/JPY support test at ¥152.11: Technical outlook

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US Dollar vs Yen slides 0.5% today

Highlights

Japan and the US deployed $99.6 billion in joint currency intervention to support the yen, resulting in a 6.2% drop in Japan's foreign reserves in August.
Stronger Japanese wage data and an upward GDP revision affirm expectations that the Bank of Japan will adopt a firmer policy approach.
USD/JPY trades under key moving averages, with momentum indicators signaling predominant selling pressure and an expected two to three day range of ¥152.11 to ¥154.33.

Yen support intensifies on joint intervention and robust Japanese data

Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury undertook a substantial joint intervention in the currency market, committing roughly $99.6 billion to support the yen, according to Fxstreet and Globalbankingandfinance. This sizeable intervention led to a reported 6.2% decrease in Japan's foreign reserves in August, demonstrating the magnitude of official efforts to stabilize the currency. Recent releases of robust wage growth data and a GDP revision in Japan, as highlighted by FXStreet, have further reinforced expectations of a firmer policy stance by the Bank of Japan.

Downward bias prevails as technical signals align with seller pressure

On the technical chart, USD/JPY is below the MA-20 at ¥153.85 and the MA-50 at ¥154.14 on the hourly timeframe, and remains well under the long-term MA-200 at ¥158.91 on the daily chart. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at ¥153.85, while support is seen near ¥152.11. Hourly RSI registers at 35.34, MACD and ADX both indicate a sell bias, and Stoch RSI along with CCI are in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power highlights persistent seller dominance in intraday flows; the Awesome Oscillator is neutral and not reinforcing the current downward momentum. There is broad alignment between price action and the direction indicated by these signals.

Downside risk dominates as support breach could drive new lows

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/JPY is expected to trade in a band between ¥152.11 and ¥154.33, a typical volatility range relative to current levels. The probability of a downward move is assessed as very high, with an upward reversal scenario considered unlikely unless the pair decisively breaks above the ¥153.85 resistance. The base case is for the pair to trade sideways within this band, with risk skewed toward further downside if support at ¥152.11 fails.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued weakness in USD/JPY following the recent joint currency intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury. The analyst notes clear selling pressure on the technical chart, with price held beneath all key moving averages and indicators firmly in bearish alignment. Downside risk remains elevated unless the ¥153.85 resistance is recovered. "Until USD/JPY reclaims the ¥153.85 level, I remain defensive and see little reason to expect a bullish reversal."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent downside momentum in USD/JPY was driven by rising expectations of a more hawkish stance from the Bank of Japan and ongoing technical weakness. The latest confirmation of robust official intervention and fresh economic data bolster this prevailing trend, highlighting ¥152.11 as a critical support level that—if breached—could accelerate further declines.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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