Can USD/KRW break resistance as Federal Reserve releases new US interest rates?

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US dollar vs won gains 0.54% today

Highlights

The Federal Reserve published its H.15 report detailing U.S. interest rates, providing key benchmarks for global markets.
Market participants are recalibrating short-term USD/KRW valuations and risk using the latest official U.S. rate data.
USD/KRW shows short- and medium-term bullish momentum, with 1,374 acting as support and an expected range of 1,375 to 1,394.

Fed rate benchmarks drive real-time valuation and trading sentiment

On September 16, the Federal Reserve released its daily H.15 report detailing selected U.S. interest rates, including yields on Treasury securities and the effective federal funds rate, according to the Federal Reserve. These published rates serve as a primary benchmark for global financial markets and directly influence trading conditions in the US Dollar vs Korean Won currency pair. Participants are calibrating expectations based on the latest official data, using it as a framework for short-term valuation and risk assessment.

Buy signals clash with overbought risk as momentum diverges

Technically, USD/KRW is positioned between major moving averages, with support at MA-20 (₩1,376) and MA-50 (₩1,368) providing a buffer below the current level, while the MA-200 (₩1,468) caps long-term upside. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at ₩1,374, acting as further intraday support. Momentum indicators are split: MACD and ADX show buy signals, CCI also signals buy, and RSI records a reading of 65.67—indicating a mildly overbought condition. Stoch RSI is oversold, highlighting the potential for price consolidation or a near-term pause. Bull/Bear Power remains overbought, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, reflecting ongoing conflict between active buyers and signs of possible short-term exhaustion.

Range-bound outlook anchored by mixed signals and key support

Looking ahead, USD/KRW is expected to hold within a narrow trading band of ₩1,375–₩1,394 over the next several days, consistent with recent low volatility. There is a very high probability of further upward movement if the pair breaks through resistance at the upper bound, while bearish scenarios would require a confirmed breach of support at ₩1,374. The baseline forecast envisions continued range-bound action, with directional signals hinging on resolution of mixed short-term momentum cues.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees the USD/KRW pair as well-supported by official Fed data and steady macro sentiment. He notes that global participants are calibrating positions based on the latest H.15 release, which underpins short-term stability. Mixed technical signals suggest possible consolidation before any breakout. However, Karapetjanc believes the market's constructive undertone remains intact. "I expect USD/KRW to hold recent gains and see a strong chance of further upside if resistance is breached in the coming sessions."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/KRW was exhibiting short-term strength within a broader context of mixed momentum and hesitation around key technical levels. The latest developments confirm this cautious outlook, with the pair remaining range-bound and traders advised to monitor for a breakout above ₩1,394 or a breakdown below ₩1,374 as the next directional signal.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.