Why is the US dollar rising against the Hungarian forint today? Federal Reserve rate hike drives flat action

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US Dollar gains 0.52% to Ft317,755

Highlights

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4%, focusing on upside inflation risks.
The rate hike sent US Treasury yields higher and pushed the US Dollar to its strongest level in seven weeks versus major currencies.
USD/HUF trades in a mildly constructive technical trend, with projected range at Ft316.1669 to Ft319.3445 and a 62% probability of further gains.

US rate hike lifts dollar demand as yields surge on inflation risk

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, reflecting renewed focus on upside inflation risks and signaling that further tightening could follow. According to Euronews, this move drove a sharp rise in US Treasury yields, which in turn boosted demand for the US Dollar, pushing it to its highest level in seven weeks against a basket of major currencies. This decisive shift in US rate policy has contributed to the recent strength in USD/HUF, as global investors reallocate toward higher-yielding dollar assets amid changing monetary conditions.

Mixed momentum signals as price tests overbought conditions above supports

USD/HUF trades above the MA-20 at Ft316.0414 and MA-50 at Ft316.7393 on the H1 chart, with the price also above the MA-200 at Ft316.986 on the daily timeframe. Immediate support sits at the Ichimoku Kijun line at Ft316.3715, while the projected trading range for coming sessions is Ft316.1669 to Ft319.3445. Momentum signals are mixed: MACD indicates strong selling pressure, ADX is neutral, and Awesome Oscillator offers no clear signal. RSI remains in bullish territory, though Stoch RSI and CCI are both overbought, and Bull/Bear Power points to buyers dominating intraday activity.

Bullish breakout possible if resistance breaks amid upside probability

In the short term, price action is expected to remain confined near recent levels, with a 62% probability of an upward move versus 38% for a downside scenario. A clear break above resistance would confirm a bullish breakout within the current volatility band. Conversely, a bearish scenario would only develop if the price decisively breaks below immediate support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees robust momentum in USD/HUF fueled by renewed Fed tightening and a sharp policy signal to global markets. He believes the US rate hike and resulting surge in Treasury yields are major macro forces driving capital into dollar-denominated assets, sustaining upward pressure on the pair. Technical levels sit firmly in support of this narrative, with buyers holding the advantage despite mixed short-term signals. "With global investors favoring the US Dollar after the Fed’s move, I expect upside in USD/HUF to remain favored as long as support levels hold," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/HUF maintained a broadly bullish structure supported by ongoing upward momentum despite intermittent selling pressures. The recent Fed rate hike and resulting demand for the US Dollar add a new dimension to this bullish outlook, with traders advised to monitor the Ft319.3445 resistance for potential confirmation of a breakout in the current volatility environment.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.