Can the new TRM benchmark pressure USD/COP?

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Highlights

The official Representative Market Rate is set at 3,194.44 COP per USD for October 13, 2026, anchoring institutional currency settlements.
The TRM rate acts as the government benchmark and is key to liquidity and intraday pricing for the USD/COP market.
USD/COP trades below major moving averages with bearish momentum, set to consolidate between 3,163 and 3,199 with low probability of a near-term reversal.

Official TRM benchmark anchors liquidity and intraday pricing

The key news setting the backdrop for USD/COP is the publication of the official Representative Market Rate (TRM) at 3,194.44 COP per USD for October 13, 2026, according to Elcomercio. This rate acts as the government-recognized benchmark, guiding institutional and cross-border currency settlements for the trading day. The confirmation of the TRM serves to anchor market liquidity and can shape intraday pricing as participants align with the established reference.

Oversold conditions deepen as price breaches multiple supports

USD/COP recently broke below the MA-20 at COL$3,192 and MA-50 at COL$3,194 on the hourly chart, and remains well under the MA-200 at COL$3,446 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at COL$3,195 defines immediate resistance overhead. Momentum indicators support a downside bias: MACD registers a Sell, ADX is Neutral, and the RSI has fallen to 32.52, signaling oversold conditions; both Stochastic RSI and CCI corroborate this with additional oversold readings. Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday seller dominance, further backed by the Awesome Oscillator, which points to persistent selling momentum.

Downside favored as consolidation range narrows near support

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/COP is expected to consolidate within a COL$3,163 to COL$3,199 volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of a move higher remains very low, with a less than 20% probability, while continued declines are viewed as much more probable, exceeding 80%. The primary scenario favors sideways consolidation; an upward breakout would require a sustained close above COL$3,195, whereas a decisive break below COL$3,163 could signal a renewed bearish leg.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the USD/COP pair trapped in a technical downtrend with key moving averages acting as firm resistance. He notes that official TRM confirmation at COL$3,194.44 has stabilized sentiment but failed to ignite buying interest. Short-term momentum remains negative, and oversold readings suggest limited upside risk unless a clear reversal materializes. "Without a sustained move above COL$3,195, I remain skeptical of any bullish scenario for USD/COP this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/COP was under persistent selling pressure, with technical indicators suggesting a tilt toward further weakness. This view is reinforced by the current confirmation of oversold conditions and a strong downside bias, highlighting the importance of monitoring the COL$3,163 support level for potential breakout risks.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.