Pakistan trims FY2026 GDP growth estimate as services and industry slow

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Pakistan trims FY2026 GDP estimate

Highlights

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics revises FY2026 GDP growth estimate to 3.65%, down from earlier projections, citing slower services and industry expansion.
Agriculture grows 3.50% on improved wheat, maize, pulses, and oilseed output, while large-scale manufacturing drops to 5.01% and wholesale and retail trade falls to 2.37%.
Pakistan's FY2026 economic size reaches Rs126.4 trillion ($450.4 billion) with per capita income at Rs531,897 ($1,896), up from Rs114.9 trillion ($408.7 billion) a year prior.

Revised FY2026 growth breakdown and quarterly changes

As reported by Pakistan Business Recorder, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Monday show updated FY2026 growth of 3.65%, while the National Accounts Committee says revised sector readings reflect changes across agriculture, industry and services.

The committee says updated growth rates in agriculture, industry and services are 3.50%, 3.34% and 3.81%, compared with earlier estimates of 2.89%, 3.51% and 4.09%, respectively. In agriculture, important crops improve from 0.65% to 1.59% due to wheat and maize, while other crops rise from 2.43% to 4.28% on higher output of pulses, fruits, tomato, oilseed and green fodder.

Livestock edges down from 3.75% to 3.71% because of increased fodder inputs, while forestry and fishing post updated growth rates of 10.80% and 1.39%, respectively. In industry, mining and quarrying improves from 0.38% to 1.52% with gains in gas, crude oil and coal, but large-scale manufacturing, measured through the Quantum Index of Manufacturing, declines from 6.11% to 5.01%.

The services sector slows to 3.81% from 4.09%. Wholesale and retail trade falls to 2.37% from 3.71% due to lower manufacturing and imports, while transport and storage rises to 3.23% from 2.31%; information and communication increases to 9.53% from 7.52%, and finance and insurance advances to 4.23% from 0.32%.

The committee also approves revised quarterly GDP growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3, and a fresh Q4 rate for FY2026. Overall GDP is revised from 3.92% to 3.89% in Q1, from 4.05% to 4.31% in Q2, and from 3.99% to 4.42% in Q3, while Pakistan’s GDP posts 2.0% growth in Q4, with agriculture at 3.71%, industry at -4.70% and services at 3.62%.

Implications for Pakistan’s economic outlook

The lower full-year estimate suggests Pakistan’s growth momentum remains uneven across major sectors, with stronger agriculture revisions partly offset by softer industry and services performance. The data also indicates that manufacturing and trade activity remain under pressure even as mining, transport, communications and insurance show improvement.

Based on the latest national accounts aggregates for FY2026, the committee says the economy’s overall size stands at Rs126.4 trillion, or $450.4 billion, compared with Rs114.9 trillion, or $408.7 billion, a year earlier. Per capita income for FY2026 stands at Rs531,897, equivalent to $1,896, according to the committee’s data.

Our earlier article on Pakistan’s push to expand priority-sector lending explained how the government is urging banks to increase credit to housing, agriculture and SMEs, linking improved lending performance to access to incentives. It outlined targets to lift farm credit and SME financing to Rs1.5 trillion each by June 2027, alongside steps such as streamlined housing-loan processing, risk-sharing arrangements and public-private partnerships to ease structural constraints on formal credit.

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