Canada poverty estimate holds near prior level in 2025

Traders Union
All News
Economic Data
Canada 2025 poverty estimate

Highlights

Statistics Canada estimates about 4.6 million people, or an unchanged 11.0% rate, below the poverty line in Canada for 2025, with official data due spring 2027.
In 2025, bottom 20% income households saw disposable income growth of 2.6%, lagging the 3.8% overall gain but matching 2.1% inflation.
Provisional poverty rates for Quebec rise to 8.5% from 7.0%, while British Columbia and Ontario register the highest rates at 13.0% and 12.1% respectively for 2025.

Provisional estimate and 2027 release timeline

As reported by Statistics Canada, the provisional estimate suggests about 4.6 million people in Canada are living below the poverty line in 2025. The agency says the early figures are intended to indicate expected changes in poverty rates while research and development work continues to improve the timeliness and methodology of future provisional releases.

Statistics Canada says the official poverty rates for 2025 are due in the spring of 2027. The broader 2025 economic indicators cited in the release are consistent with a national poverty rate that remains relatively unchanged from the 11.0% official rate recorded for 2024.

Among income groups, households in the bottom 20% of the distribution post average disposable income growth of 2.6% in 2025, below the 3.8% increase for all households. Even so, that gain keeps pace with the 2025 annual average inflation rate of 2.1%.

Regional and demographic pressure points

The provisional rate for seniors aged 65 and older is 7.0% in 2025, indicating an increase from the 5.4% official rate for 2024. By contrast, the provisional poverty rates for people aged 18 to 64, at 12.4%, and for children younger than 18, at 11.4%, are projected to be relatively unchanged.

By household type, unattached individuals are projected to post a provisional poverty rate of 26.2% in 2025, while families are at 8.0%. Both are expected to be broadly comparable with the previous year.

Quebec stands out among provinces, with a provisional poverty rate of 8.5%, up from its 7.0% official rate a year earlier. The remaining provinces are projected to see little change, while British Columbia, at 13.0%, and Ontario, at 12.1%, record the highest provisional poverty rates for 2025.

Our earlier article on Walmart’s growing appeal in an inflationary environment explained how persistent price pressures are pushing more budget-conscious shoppers toward the retailer and supporting market share gains. We also noted that Walmart is leaning on higher-margin businesses, automation, and digital tools such as its AI shopping assistant to lift sales and improve profitability.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.