Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes: How high could BTC go?

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Bitcoin price prediction by Arthur Hayes

Money matters more than missiles

Everyone is talking about the U.S. and Israel’s military operation against Iran, and Arthur Hayes has also weighed in. However, in his latest essay, he focuses not on the military actions themselves but on how U.S. authorities might respond. In his view, if the conflict becomes prolonged and costly, it will increase pressure on the US budget. In that case, it would become harder for the Federal Reserve to maintain a tight monetary policy.

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Hayes points out that during major crises, the Fed has previously moved to cut rates. This happened during the Gulf War in the 1990s and after the September 11, 2001 attacks. In both cases, the regulator quickly eased policy to stabilize the economy and financial markets.

Hayes’ main idea is straightforward: if rates begin to fall and liquidity increases, risk assets tend to benefit. He considers Bitcoin to be one of those assets that gains from an influx of “cheap money.” For him, the decisive factor is not the military conflict itself, but the concrete actions taken by the Federal Reserve.

Arthur Hayes’ boldest predictions

Arthur Hayes has long been known for his bold forecasts. Over the years, he has argued that Bitcoin could reach unprecedented levels in the long term, citing money printing and the growth of global debt as key drivers. At the same time, he has repeatedly warned about sharp downturns, especially during periods of Fed tightening.

He has also outlined shorter-term scenarios with specific price targets. For example, in a January 2025 post, Hayes suggested that BTC could first pull back to the $70,000–75,000 range and then surge to $250,000. However, by spring he revised that target down to $200,000.

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Another notable example came in spring 2024. Hayes warned that a pullback could occur around the Bitcoin halving, arguing that the “bullish effect” of the event had already been priced in and that the market might face selling pressure in late April.

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Over the long term, he continues to set the bar high. Throughout last year, Hayes repeatedly stated that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2028, linking this outlook to future monetary easing and rising global debt. But how much weight should investors give to his predictions?

A controversial reputation

Arthur Hayes is more than just an analyst — he is one of the most prominent figures of the early crypto market. He co-founded BitMEX, which at one point was the largest platform for Bitcoin derivatives trading, with daily volumes frequently reaching billions of dollars.

However, Hayes’ career has also included a high-profile legal case with US authorities. In 2020, American regulators charged BitMEX executives with violating anti-money laundering requirements. Hayes later pleaded guilty to one count, paid a fine, and received probation.

As a result, his reputation remains mixed: on one hand, he is an experienced entrepreneur who has navigated multiple market cycles; on the other, he has a history of regulatory conflict.

Are there real grounds for growth?

Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,000, while the total crypto market capitalization stands at roughly $2.3 trillion. The key question is not how the conflict evolves, but how the Federal Reserve responds. Markets will primarily watch three things: whether the Fed starts cutting rates, whether US bond yields move lower, and whether the regulator’s rhetoric turns more dovish.

If the Fed does move toward rate cuts or launches support measures, liquidity in the system will increase and borrowing costs will decline. In such periods, investors often rotate back into risk assets, and cryptocurrencies tend to see renewed demand. This is exactly the scenario Hayes is betting on: not “war equals growth,” but “easier policy equals more liquidity equals stronger interest in BTC.”

However, if the Fed keeps rates elevated and maintains its focus on fighting inflation, the growth scenario may fail to materialize or could be delayed. Moreover, geopolitical tensions can trigger sharp moves in both directions — first a spike in fear and selling pressure, followed by recovery if signs of easing emerge.

The bottom line is simple: conflict alone does not guarantee Bitcoin’s rise. The real “fuel tank” for BTC is Fed policy and liquidity flows. In the coming months, the crypto market will depend less on headlines from the Middle East and more on what happens to interest rates and money supply in the US economy.

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