Arthur Hayes: U.S. conflict with Iran could push BTC to grow
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that a potential escalation of conflict between the United States and Iran could create a bullish macro scenario for Bitcoin. In an essay published on March 2, he argues that a prolonged and costly foreign campaign could increase pressure on the federal budget and push the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative monetary policy.
According to his logic, the decisive factor would not be the conflict itself, but the regulator’s response, as reported by Bitcoinist.
Hayes suggests that rising fiscal strain would increase the likelihood of rate cuts and expanded liquidity. Historically, he argues, major geopolitical shocks have been followed by monetary easing. At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading around $66,218.
Historical examples of Fed responses
Hayes refers to previous episodes dating back to 1990. During the Gulf War, the Federal Reserve signaled the possibility of easing policy amid deteriorating economic conditions. After the September 2001 attacks, the regulator urgently cut rates by 50 basis points to stabilize markets.
According to Hayes, such moves demonstrate that military and political crises often become catalysts for cheaper money. He emphasizes that lower rates and an expanding money supply traditionally support risk assets. He includes BTC in this category, noting that it has historically benefited from periods of increased liquidity.
Not a call for immediate buying
At the same time, Hayes does not advise taking aggressive positions immediately. He notes that it remains unclear how extensive or prolonged potential US involvement in a conflict might be. In his view, the market should wait for confirmation in the form of concrete Fed actions rather than positioning in advance.
He believes the optimal moment for active buying would come after an actual rate cut or the launch of stimulus programs. Until then, investors should monitor inflation dynamics, bond yields, and central bank rhetoric. His thesis is therefore based on a probable monetary response, not on predicting military developments.
Liquidity and BTC performance
In previous cycles of Fed balance sheet expansion, Bitcoin recorded substantial gains. After quantitative easing was introduced in 2020, BTC rose from below $10,000 to record highs in the following months. Analysts note that global liquidity remains one of the key drivers of digital assets.
If the Fed returns to rate cuts under fiscal pressure, it could increase capital flows into alternative assets. However, in the short term, geopolitical tensions may trigger volatility and a temporary shift into defensive assets. As a result, the scenario outlined by Hayes depends on the speed and scale of potential monetary easing.
Recently we wrote that the crypto market is showing moderate decline, holding total capitalization at $2.29 trillion (−1.24% over 24 hours), while weekly performance across major assets remains mixed. BTC is trading around $66,587, down 0.71% in a day but still up 2.04% over the week.
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