EUR/USD price steadies after five-day rally as policymakers remain divided on policy
The EUR/USD price rallied for five consecutive days last week, breaking through the key resistance at $1.0460 and reaching a high of 1.0515. The bullish momentum marked the second straight week of gains in February. However, as the new week begins, the pair has pulled back by 0.3% in the European session, now trading at 1.0473.
The euro's strength last week was driven by a broad decline in the U.S. dollar, which fell to its lowest level since December following weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales data. Despite this, expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance have helped limit further losses for the dollar, contributing to today’s pullback in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD price dynamics (December 2024-February 2025). Source: TradingView
On the European Central Bank (ECB) front, diverging views among policymakers could influence EUR/USD’s direction. ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta has advocated for looser monetary policy, arguing that current rate settings are exerting unnecessary downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Markets are currently pricing in 75 basis points of ECB rate cuts over the next 12 months, which would bring the policy rate down to 2%.
100-day EMA at 1.0544 emerges as critical resistance for EUR/USD
The 1.0460 level, previously a resistance, has turned into a critical support zone, while the 100-day EMA at 1.0544 now poses resistance. A break above this level could push EUR/USD to multi-week highs.
With EUR/USD now trading between the 1.0460 support and the 100-day EMA resistance at 1.0544, the next key move will depend on whether buyers maintain momentum or if sellers push the pair lower. A break above 1.0544 could reinforce the uptrend, while failure to hold above 1.0460 may trigger further declines.
EUR/USD price extends four-day rally boosted by optimism in Ukraine but faces major technical hurdles. The 50-day EMA acted as resistance, leading to a pullback to 1.038.
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