MSTR today news: Price risks further fall below $170 as negative momentum dominates

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MicroStrategy slides 3.11% today

Highlights

Strategy risks exclusion from major indexes like the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes due to holding over 50% of assets in bitcoin.
MSCI has proposed a rule barring index inclusion for companies with more than 50% of assets in digital currencies, which Strategy formally contests as discriminatory.
To manage index exclusion risk and possible bitcoin price weakness, Strategy has secured a $1.44 billion reserve and may sell bitcoin if weakness persists.

Potential index exclusion and bitcoin risk drive defensive measures

Strategy faces possible exclusion from major stock indexes, including the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI’s Global Investable Market Indexes, due to its significant bitcoin holdings. MSCI has proposed a rule to exclude companies with over 50% of assets in digital currencies, which the company is formally contesting as discriminatory. In response to this risk, Strategy has secured a $1.44 billion reserve to cover future dividend and interest payments, and the management has signaled the potential to sell some bitcoin holdings if prolonged weakness continues.

Bearish momentum intensifies as oscillators diverge at weak support

Momentum signals remain heavily negative, with the MACD and ADX both showing persistent bearish strength and trend continuation. RSI is deep in bearish territory at 38.51, while the Stoch RSI reveals lingering overbought conditions and CCI is neutral, highlighting a slight divergence among oscillators. BBP is sharply negative, reflecting firm intraday seller dominance; the Awesome Oscillator is neutral, offering no counter-trend signal. The Ichimoku framework shows the closest dynamic resistance at the Kijun level of $205.49, with no significant support below the current price.

Downside probability rises as volatility and support erode

Technically adjusted volatility for the next five sessions points to a range between $170 and $185. The likelihood of continued downside exceeds 80%, aligning with persistent bearish momentum and the absence of substantial dynamic support. Most scenarios suggest stabilization within $170 to $185, with only a sharp drop in selling pressure potentially triggering an upside move above $185 toward Kijun resistance at $205. Should the price lose $170, the path opens for accelerated declines to lower supports, matching ongoing negative momentum signals.

Anton Kharitonov, Traders Union expert, sees Strategy Inc. in a vulnerable position amid stiff technical and regulatory headwinds. He notes that bearish momentum dominates, with little dynamic support and no relief in sight as index exclusion risks intensify. The analyst remains cautious and views the $170 level as crucial for downside acceleration. "For now, I would avoid long entries — unless the price decisively reclaims $185, the risk remains skewed lower."

Previously it was reported that bearish momentum in MSTR was reinforced as it persisted below all key moving averages, with weak RSI, MACD and ADX readings pointing to continued downside risk. The asset was described as remaining under notable selling pressure within a narrow range, while technical barriers — including dynamic resistance highlighted in the recent update on daily performance — continued to limit rebound potential and favor a bearish to neutral near-term outlook.

Source of Data: MSTR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.