-3.48% for SoFi stock — dilution fears and technical weakness pressure the price

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SoFi slides 3.48% today to $25.65

Highlights

SoFi announced a $1.5 billion share offering, raising investor concerns about dilution and its impact on future ownership structure.
The company demonstrated strong fundamentals, posting robust revenue growth, a GAAP profit in Q4 2023, and expanded to 12.6 million members and 18.6 million products by Q3 2025.
Thrive Wealth Management LLC acquired a new stake in SoFi during Q3 2025, indicating continued institutional interest despite the share offering.

Investor dilution concerns emerge amid strong fundamentals and new stake

SoFi recently announced a $1.5 billion share offering, raising investor concerns about potential share dilution and its impact on future ownership. The company reported strong fundamentals, including robust revenue growth, an expanding member base with 12.6 million members and 18.6 million products at the end of Q3 2025, and a GAAP profit achieved in Q4 2023. During the third quarter of 2025, Thrive Wealth Management LLC acquired a new stake in the company.

Oversold signals intensify as downward momentum persists intraday

Momentum signals are mixed: MACD continues to signal a sell, while ADX on the daily chart is neutral and low, indicating a lack of clear trend strength. Oversold readings are observed in Stoch RSI and BBP, pointing toward seller dominance and possible exhaustion, while the RSI (at 44.54) and CCI (at –66.93) also indicate prevailing bearish momentum. The Awesome Oscillator supports the downward bias seen in intraday activity. The stock opened slightly higher with no significant gap from the previous session and has since moved down 3.48%, now trading near the lower end of today’s range ($25.76 – $26.83), highlighting high intraday volatility and continued pressure since the open. Although oversold signals are mounting, they are not currently reversing the prevailing negative momentum throughout the session.

Sideways consolidation favored as rebound odds remain low

For the next 5 trading days, the expected price corridor is adjusted to $24.75 – $26.75, given recent volatility and the current price level. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a strong rebound, while a downward move remains more likely based on long-term momentum and trend indicators. Baseline scenario calls for sideways consolidation within this volatility band as oversold short-term oscillators meet longer-term support. A bullish scenario would require a close above the $28.14 resistance (Kijun and MA-50 area), unlocking further upside, while a break below the $24.75 support could prompt increased selling and further downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees SoFi under continued bearish pressure as technical signals remain negative in the short and medium term. He notes that the recent $1.5 billion share offering and mounting oversold indicators have not yet produced a reversal, despite strong fundamentals and member growth. The analyst remains cautious, expecting sideways movement within the $24.75 – $26.75 corridor unless the $28.14 resistance is reclaimed. "Base case remains defensive; unless SoFi closes above $28.14, the risk is still toward further downside."

Last time, analysts noted that SoFi Technologies, Inc. is trading below its short- and medium-term moving averages, signaling persistent bearish momentum, though the price remains supported above its long-term average. Momentum indicators including MACD and RSI confirm oversold conditions and weak trend strength, with sellers dominating below dynamic resistance while underlying support has yet to be breached.

Source of Data: SOFI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.