Silver price forecast: XAG/USD may extend record run if CPI weakens dollar

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Macro data to shape silver's next price move

Highlights

Silver consolidates below its $66.87 record high as investors await CPI and jobless claims.
Waller’s dovish stance raised rate-cut bets, but silver stalled below the $67 level.
CPI print above forecast may lift the dollar and pressure silver below EMA support.

Wednesday’s intraday price movement initially saw some profit-taking in the European session. However, momentum returned during the North American hours, lifting the price to the record high. This renewed strength coincided with remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The governor supported additional rate cuts to bring monetary policy closer to neutral, a signal that market participants interpreted as dovish. However, he also stressed that there was no urgency to ease, due to ongoing inflation concerns.

Silver price dynamics (Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

That mixed tone saw traders increase their expectations for a near-term rate cut. Futures pricing now reflects a 31% probability of a rate reduction at the next policy meeting following the NFP report, compared to 22% before Waller’s speech, according to LSEG data. Despite this shift, silver failed to breach $67, suggesting markets are still awaiting further confirmation from upcoming macroeconomic data

Silver near-term trajectory hinges on CPI and jobless claims data

Attention has now shifted to the U.S. Consumer Price Index year-on-year report, scheduled for release at 9:30 AM EST. The forecast stands at 3.1% compared to a previous 3.0%. A reading above forecast would likely strengthen the dollar, as it could reduce the probability of rate cuts. That scenario would weigh on silver due to its inverse relationship with the dollar and interest rates. Conversely, a softer reading could weaken the dollar and offer renewed upside momentum for silver.

Also set for release at the same time is the weekly unemployment claims report. Forecast sits at 224,000, below the previous 236,000. A lower actual figure would suggest labor market resilience and could also support the dollar, creating short-term pressure on silver. A higher number would weaken the dollar and support precious metals.

Technically, silver is trading well above its short-term moving averages. The 1-hour 50 EMA is near $65.4, and the 100 EMA is near $64.3. These levels may act as immediate support if incoming data triggers a temporary pullback. But if both data points align against the dollar, silver may extend gains above $66.87 and continue its uptrend into new price territory.

We discussed how silver surged to a record high of $66.5 after opening at $63.7. Price broke above $64.64 before pulling back as traders locked in gains ahead of Fed speeches.

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