Silver price forecast: XAG/USD defies U.S. GDP strength, rallies to $72.76 record high

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XAG/USD steady at all-time high amid overbought RSI

Highlights

Silver consolidates near $72 as record-breaking rally pauses before jobless claims report
DXY weakness and Fed expectations sustain silver’s bid despite overbought RSI readings
XAG/USD holding above 20 and 100 EMA during tight-range intraday consolidation phase

This month has been silver’s strongest in over six months, now recording a month-to-date gain of over 27%. Today’s levels mark the fifth straight week of bullish performance. So far this week, silver has climbed approximately 7%, reinforcing the strength of its ongoing trend. The metal’s ability to sustain upward momentum reflects deep-rooted safe-haven demand and expectations around monetary easing.

Silver price dynamics (2022 - 2025). Source: Tradingview

Tuesday’s breakout above the psychological $70 level was a key moment. The trigger came as silver rallied in response to safe-haven bids driven by the U.S.-Venezuelan tensions. Strong U.S. GDP data released during the same session would have boosted the dollar and weakened metals. However, Silver defied that correlation, extending gains instead of correcting. This divergence signals strong underlying buying interest and suggests that geopolitical risk and Federal Reserve expectations are outweighing classical dollar-based pressures.

Investors await the jobless claims print as silver trades above key EMA supports

Technically, the intraday trend remains supported. Throughout December, silver has held above the 100 EMA on the 1-hour chart. Today’s session shows the 20 EMA acting as a base for sideways movement. These moving averages continue to offer layered support zones during short-term consolidations.

Macro fundamentals also favor continued bullish pressure. The U.S. Dollar Index is trading near a 12-week low, its weakest since early October. The dollar’s decline reflects ongoing dovish Federal Reserve expectations. Lower rates make non-yielding assets like silver more attractive, reinforcing bullish flows. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainty strengthens demand for safe-haven metals, even as RSI indicators flash extreme overbought conditions on both daily and weekly timeframes.

Later today, investors will turn to U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data for fresh cues. Market consensus points to 223,000 claims, only slightly below the previous 224,000 reading. A weaker-than-expected print could further weaken the dollar and support higher silver valuations into the holiday break.

We discussed how silver hit a record high of $70 per ounce before pulling back slightly. RSI overbought readings and upcoming U.S. data signaled near-term resistance for XAG/USD.

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