Costco stock price forecast: sideways trend likely as COST faces weak support and low breakout odds

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Costco up 0.18% today at $873.45

Highlights

Costco reported quarterly revenue of $67.31 billion and earnings per share of $4.34, both exceeding consensus expectations, with a 2.96% net margin.
Costco maintains a conservative 25% free cash flow dividend payout ratio, offering an annualized $5.20 per share dividend and a yield of 0.6%.
Ongoing international expansion, membership promotions, and delivery service partnerships are driving Costco's efforts to broaden its customer base.

Earnings outperformance fuels growth strategies and stable dividends

Costco reported strong quarterly earnings, with $67.31 billion in revenue, $4.34 earnings per share, and a 2.96% net margin, all outperforming consensus estimates. The company continues to maintain a low dividend payout ratio, distributing about 25% of free cash flow, resulting in an annualized $5.20 per share dividend and a yield of 0.6%. Ongoing international expansion, membership promotions, and partnerships with delivery services are being used to broaden their customer base.

Mixed momentum and weak trend amid modest consolidation signals

Momentum readings are mixed: the daily MACD shows strong bearish momentum, while ADX indicates a weak trend, and RSI stands at 44.87, tilting modestly bearish. Stochastic RSI and Bull/Bear Power are both firmly in overbought territory, suggesting lingering buyer pressure, even as the broader trend remains cautious. COST opened slightly below the previous close ($870.25 vs $871.86, with no major gap), and after a minor gain of 0.18%, the price currently sits mid-range for the session, indicating modest intraday volatility and a tone of sideways consolidation that does not fully confirm the directional signals from momentum indicators.

Sideways consolidation likely as upside breakout risk remains low

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $865 – $885, reflecting typical weekly movement for a blue-chip stock near current levels. There is a very low probability (less than 20%) of a price increase, with a price decrease considered more likely. The baseline scenario is for Costco’s shares to continue consolidating sideways, with any sustained break above $885 signaling a potential bullish reversal, while a decisive move below $865 would point to further weakness and a bearish continuation.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Costco shares stuck in a cautious consolidation, despite strong earnings and international expansion. He notes that technicals remain weak, with the price below key moving averages and mixed momentum readings. Defensive traders should focus on the $865 and $885 pivots for next week. "Base case remains sideways — until $885 is reclaimed, I remain cautious on further upside for COST."

Previously it was reported that Costco is currently trading below its short-, medium-, and long-term moving averages, with key indicators such as MACD, ADX, and RSI reflecting ongoing bearish momentum and limited confirmation of a sustained move higher. The stock faces strong resistance near $885, while the near-term outlook remains range-bound with downside risk dominating unless a breakout above key resistance occurs.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.