Tesla stock rises 3% after Trump praises Musk for innovation

Highlights

Tesla shares gained 3% following Donald Trump’s public praise of Elon Musk and the company’s innovation.
Development of the Optimus humanoid robot is facing delays, with production still in early stages.
Meanwhile, Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries fell 16% year-over-year, signaling continued pressure on Tesla’s core business.

Tesla is finding support around the $430 area. This level aligns closely with the rising trendline drawn from October 2025 lows and also coincides with the 50-day simple moving average. A failure to hold this level could send the stock back toward its next major floor in the $400–$410 range, which held in multiple test cases during Q3 2025.

Momentum indicators are neutral to slightly bullish. The relative strength index (RSI) is hovering just below 60, suggesting there is still room to the upside before conditions become overbought. MACD lines recently completed a bullish crossover, although the histogram remains shallow, reflecting tentative conviction. Volume has increased modestly on green days, but there is no decisive accumulation yet from institutional buyers, indicating that the current rally may still be speculative or reactionary.

Tesla stock price dynamics (November 2025 - January 2025). Source: TradingView

From a longer-term perspective, Tesla remains above its 200-day moving average, a signal that keeps the bullish thesis intact, though under pressure. If the price holds above $430 for the coming sessions, the trend may shift back to a more constructive bullish stance, particularly if reinforced by improving fundamentals or sentiment shifts.

Trump backs Musk as Tesla struggles with Optimus delays and delivery slump

U.S. President Donald Trump recently praised Elon Musk, calling him a “great innovator” and highlighting Tesla as a symbol of American technological leadership. The endorsement comes amid rising speculation about Musk’s potential political influence in the 2026 election cycle. Trump’s comments appear aimed at strengthening ties with tech-sector entrepreneurs, with Tesla positioned at the intersection of EV innovation, AI development, and industrial automation. The market reacted swiftly, with Tesla shares gaining traction as retail sentiment turned more bullish.

At the same time, internal reports suggest Tesla’s highly ambitious Optimus robot project is falling behind schedule. Despite Musk’s repeated claims that Optimus could be central to Tesla’s future valuation, development setbacks have mounted. Sources close to the company report that the humanoid robots are still manually assembled, lack fine-motor capabilities, and face unresolved software coordination issues. Initial hopes for factory-wide deployment by 2026 have quietly faded, raising doubts about the feasibility of near-term commercialization.

These technical hurdles come as Tesla’s core automotive business shows signs of weakness. Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries dropped 16% year-over-year, with declining demand in both the U.S. and international markets. The phase-out of EV tax incentives in key regions and intensified competition from Chinese and European automakers continue to erode Tesla’s dominance. The company’s pivot toward AI and robotics, while visionary, increasingly looks like a strategic necessity rather than optional expansion.

Base case $430–$480, upside capped by delays

Looking ahead into Q1 2026, Tesla is likely to trade in a volatile but bounded range as investors weigh short-term risks against long-term potential. The base case projects consolidation between $430 and $480, with price action driven largely by sentiment, macro headlines, and speculative AI/robotics updates. A sustained move above $475 would require clear progress on either vehicle delivery stabilization or a credible roadmap for Optimus and autonomous systems.

In a bullish scenario, a combination of improving EV demand, strategic partnerships, or a major AI breakthrough could drive Tesla toward the $500 level or higher. However, without operational progress or new revenue visibility from emerging tech units, these gains may prove fleeting.

Tesla delivered 418,227 vehicles in Q4 2025, missing expectations and marking a 16% year-over-year drop. Full-year deliveries totaled 1.64 million, falling short of the company’s 2 million target for the second year in a row.

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