Affirm stock: Deeply oversold technicals and credit losses spark a sharp decline

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Affirm drops 4.34% to $56.84 today

Highlights

Affirm reported fiscal Q2 2025 revenue of $1.12 billion, up 30% year-over-year, and net income of $129.6 million ($0.37 per share), with gross merchandise volume rising 36% to $13.8 billion.
The Affirm Card segment delivered standout performance, with gross merchandise volume surging 159% and active cardholders increasing by 121%, though growing credit losses dampened sentiment.
Affirm’s price at $56.84 is well below its MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, with oversold indicators and strong downside momentum targeting a $54.00–$60.00 trading range.

Growth in card segment offset by investor caution on credit risks

Affirm reported strong financial results for the fiscal second quarter ending December 31, 2025, with revenue of $1.12 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, net income of $129.6 million, or $0.37 per share, and gross merchandise volume up 36% to $13.8 billion. Growth was especially robust in the Affirm Card segment, which saw a 159% GMV increase and a 121% rise in active cardholders. However, concerns about widening credit losses, despite a sequential improvement in delinquencies, weighed on sentiment. The quarter also featured new collaborations with QuickBooks Payments, Expedia, Wayfair, and initial adoption of AI-powered product features.

Oversold signals deepen as resistance levels cap weak momentum

Affirm’s price at $56.84 is well below the Moving Average levels of $69.66 (MA-20), $71.41 (MA-50), and $69.16 (MA-200), highlighting strong downside momentum across the short, medium, and long-term trends. The next dynamic resistance from Ichimoku Kijun aligns with the MA-50 at $71.41, serving as a notable overhead barrier. Momentum readings remain negative, with the MACD showing a clear Sell signal and the ADX on the daily chart essentially neutral, indicating a lack of clear trend strength. Multiple indicators—RSI (30.43), Stochastic RSI (8.07), and Commodity Channel Index (–123.18)—flag deeply oversold conditions, while Bull/Bear Power is firmly negative at –4.10, confirming sellers’ dominance intraday. The Awesome Oscillator also supports the prevailing downtrend.

Downside risk prevails with limited rebound chance barring breakout

Over the next five trading days, Affirm is likely to trade within an adjusted range of $54.00 – $60.00, reflecting typical volatility and aligning with the current price action. The probability of a price increase remains very low (less than 20%), making further decline the more likely scenario. The baseline outlook calls for sideways movement within this band; a bullish scenario would require a decisive break above the $60.00 – $61.00 zone, while a bearish scenario would unfold if the price drops below $54.00, confirming new lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Affirm trading under persistent selling pressure and well below key moving averages, confirming sustained downside momentum. While recent financials showed solid revenue and card segment growth, the analyst notes that credit loss concerns and negative technical signals dominate the outlook. Resistance near $71.41 limits upside, and oversold readings do little to shift the broader bearish view. "Base case remains a narrow range between $54.00 and $60.00 — until bulls reclaim $61.00, I remain defensive."

Last time, analysts noted that Affirm Holdings Inc continued to trade well below all key moving averages, with persistent bearish momentum confirmed by negative signals across major technical indicators including MACD, RSI, and CCI. Sellers remain dominant amid high volatility, with resistance established near $72 and support at $60, underscoring a negative to neutral short-term outlook unless a decisive break above resistance occurs.

Source of Data: AFRM Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.