Selling pressure pushes US dollar vs South Korean won lower in today trading

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Us dollar/won slips 0.57% today

Highlights

USD/KRW is trading at ₩1,433.74, below its MA-20 (₩1,449.88) and MA-50 (₩1,454.34), indicating persistent short- and medium-term selling pressure.
Momentum indicators such as D1 MACD (Sell), bearish RSI, and multiple oversold signals (stoch RSI, CCI, bbp) confirm continued downside bias and weak recovery attempts.
Resistance levels are set at MA-200 (₩1,434.88) and Kijun (₩1,452.44), with support near ₩1,428.25 and a projected five-day range of ₩1,406.66 to ₩1,410.03; probability of an upward move remains below 20%.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, highlights a clear downward bias for USD/KRW given its performance below all key moving averages. He notes that the absence of supporting news flow on the target dates reinforces weak sentiment and leaves the pair exposed. Kharitonov points to persistent oversold technicals, low volatility, and the failure to generate a reversal signal as evidence of limited recovery potential. He warns that the combination of sustained selling and lack of external catalysts signals ongoing vulnerability. "I see little chance for a true rebound until sellers become exhausted or a clear technical invalidation emerges," he states.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, observes that despite prevailing pressure, the pair is holding close to the MA-200, which can serve as a foundation for potential short-term stabilization. He acknowledges the recent decline but points out that macro volatility remains subdued, setting up room for structural consolidation. Karapetjanc maintains that sideways action offers scope for tactical opportunities if resistance at ₩1,452.44 breaks. "Any decisive push above the MA-200 would reignite bullish momentum and revive upward setups in the near term," he says confidently.

Bearish signals persist as dynamic resistance and oversold readings align

USD/KRW is trading at ₩1,433.74, below its MA-20 (₩1,449.88) and MA-50 (₩1,454.34), but just under the MA-200 (₩1,434.88). This configuration points to ongoing short- and medium-term selling pressure, while the MA-200 and the Ichimoku Kijun at ₩1,452.44 act as medium-term dynamic resistance and reference points for any rebound attempts. No golden or death cross signals are active at present.

Momentum indicators show a weak to bearish bias overall, as both D1 MACD (Sell) and ADX (Neutral, low value) signal reduced trend strength and favor sellers. Multiple oversold readings on stoch RSI, CCI, and bbp underscore persistent downside pressure and suggest the market is stretched, although the RSI also leans bearish. BBP confirms that sellers dominate intraday, but the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral and does not reinforce trend direction. The session opened sharply lower than the previous close, confirming a negative gap, and currently trades near the top of today’s narrow intraday range. Volatility is low, with price action showing mild recovery but still under notable pressure after the open. Some divergence exists, as short-term oversold conditions contrast with moderate bearish momentum, hinting at possible consolidation or a technical bounce.

Last time, analysts noted that USD/KRW is experiencing sustained bearish momentum, trading below all major moving averages with momentum indicators signaling continued selling pressure and mild oversold conditions. Immediate resistance remains near the Ichimoku Kijun, while limited support just above the long-term moving average suggests further downside risk within a narrow trading range.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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