US Dollar vs Swiss Franc price prediction: Bearish momentum persists as USD/CHF holds near key support

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US Dollar vs Swiss Franc up 0.53% today

Highlights

The Swiss National Bank reported a CHF26 billion profit for 2025, driven mainly by a CHF36.3 billion valuation gain on its gold reserves.
Significant losses on foreign currency holdings reflected the Swiss franc’s 12.3% appreciation against the US dollar, impacting SNB’s asset valuations.
USD/CHF trades at 0.7720 Fr., just above short-term support (MA-20, Ichimoku Kijun), with bearish momentum dominating and the 0.7715–0.7784 Fr. range likely to hold.

Franc strength and asset growth reshape USD/CHF as SNB posts profit

On March 2, 2026, the Swiss National Bank reported a CHF26 billion profit for the 2025 financial year, supported mainly by a CHF36.3 billion valuation gain on its gold reserves, while significant losses on foreign currency holdings reflected the Swiss franc's 12.3% appreciation against the US dollar. The SNB also recorded an increase in total assets to CHF893.9 billion at the end of 2025, up from CHF854.1 billion a year earlier. These results highlight the impact of the franc's strength on the USD/CHF forex pairing over the period.

Bearish momentum dominates as oscillators approach oversold conditions

Momentum readings on the daily timeframe for USD/CHF indicate persistent bearishness; both MACD and ADX confirm prevailing downside momentum, with no sign of reversal. RSI is at 40.92, Stochastic RSI at 21.62, and CCI at –62.94, all suggesting a lack of buying strength and a move toward oversold territory, though not yet extreme. Bull/Bear Power further highlights seller dominance intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator shows a 'Strong Sell' signal, reinforcing the bearish structure. Despite opening with a slight upward gap from the prior session’s close (0.7679 Fr. to 0.7685 Fr.) and reaching highs at 0.7720 Fr., the pair is trading at the top of today’s range, revealing moderate volatility and intraday bullish pressure within a broadly negative momentum backdrop; some divergence is present as oscillators hint at oversold conditions but no positive momentum shift yet.

Sideways consolidation favored as technicals point to downside risk

For the coming week, USD/CHF is expected to fluctuate within the typical volatility band of 0.7715–0.7784 Fr., keeping the current price comfortably inside these limits. The absence of any 'Buy' signals from weekly RSI, ADX, MACD, or MA-50 suggests less than a 20% probability of a near-term price increase, making a lower move much more likely. The baseline scenario is continued sideways consolidation in a tight corridor between 0.7715 and 0.7784 Fr. A bullish break above 0.7784 Fr. resistance would be needed to shift momentum, while a fall below the 0.7715 Fr. support could trigger further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent downside risk for USD/CHF amid technical and fundamental headwinds. Current momentum and structural readings remain bearish, with key resistance untested and only mild short-term support. He believes the strength of the Swiss franc, as outlined by the SNB's reporting, reinforces the dominant negative trend. "Base case remains consolidation below 0.7784 Fr. — I remain cautious unless clear momentum above resistance emerges."

Previously it was reported that USD/CHF is trading firmly below its major moving averages, with the price pressured by sustained bearish momentum across both daily and weekly timeframes. Key technical indicators including MACD, ADX, and a downward-sloping RSI confirm ongoing seller dominance, while oversold signals and subdued intraday volatility suggest persistent weakness with resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.