TJX Companies stock forecast for 2030: Tariff disruption and global expansion eyes $250

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TJX off-price tariff advantage

TJX stock price breaks out to new highs

TJX is up 1.26%, consolidating near all-time highs after a strong breakout from the $155-158 range. The stock remains in a well-defined uptrend with all EMAs sloping higher.

Highlights

TJX trades near $162 after breaking out from the $155–158 range toward all-time highs.
The company crossed $60B sales with 5% comps and gross margin expanding to about 31%.
Stock could reach $220–280 by 2030 if tariff disruption boosts off-price inventory supply.

TJX price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The recent breakout from the $155-158 resistance level has taken the price into new territory around $162. The RSI is currently at 63.63, indicating a bullish trend without being overbought, which suggests there is still potential for further gains.

Support is found at the 20 EMA near $157, with stronger support at the 50 EMA around $154. The breakout above $158 paves the way toward the $165-170 range. A pullback to $157 would be a typical retest of the breakout level.

Tariff economy creates buying opportunities

CFO John Klinger said shrink is essentially back to pre-COVID levels after two consecutive years of 20-basis-point improvements. Adjusted gross margin was 31.0% compared with 30.6% last year, including a 20-basis-point benefit from shrink favorability. For fiscal 2027, gross margin is expected at 31.1% to 31.2%, driven by an expected increase in merchandise margin.

He stated the company's full year guidance assumes TJX will be able to offset tariff pressure. Inventory is up 14% overall and up 10% on a per-store basis, with management describing merchandise availability as outstanding. When tariffs raise costs for brands and traditional retailers, those retailers overbuy, overstock, and then need to liquidate excess inventory. TJX's 1,300+ buyers worldwide are positioned to absorb that excess at deep discounts.

146 new stores include Spain entry

TJX plans to open 146 additional stores for fiscal 2027, which includes the first five stores in Spain. Forty-five new Marmaxx, 35 new HomeGoods and 24 new Sierra stores are planned in the U.S. TJX Canada also generated $5.6 billion in sales, with a 7% increase in same-store sales, and a 13.8% margin. TJX International posted $8.0 billion in sales, a 4% increase from the previous year, and a 7.3% increase in margin.

Management predicts sales to rise 4–5% to between $62.7 billion and $63.3 billion, with comps of 2–3%. EPS guidance is $4.93 to $5.02, a 4–6% increase from the adjusted $4.73 in fiscal 2026. The board wants to increase the quarterly dividend by 13%, to $0.48 a share, and buy back between $2.5 billion and $2.75 billion in stock.

Forecast and scenarios

Analyst Anton Kharitonov said, “Tariffs often damage traditional retailers because they lock them into inventory bought at the wrong price. For TJX, that dislocation becomes supply. When brands and department stores need to clear excess goods quickly, off-price buyers step in with cash and scale. If that cycle persists, TJX does not just survive tariff periods. It quietly expands margins while competitors retrench.”

Recently, TJX broke out to $161 all-time highs after reporting $60.4 billion sales with shrink back to pre-COVID levels and inventory up 14% as the off-price model positions to absorb excess branded merchandise from tariff-pressured traditional retailers.

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