Tesla stock: Persistent selling, chip factory news drive short-term rally

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Tesla surges 4.13% to $382.96 today

Highlights

Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI will benefit from a $20–25 billion AI chip factory complex launched by Elon Musk in Austin, targeting vehicle autonomy, robotics, and data centers.
The Terafab project is driving increased hiring of AI chip designers and marks reported progress in robotics across Musk-led companies.
TSLA trades below key moving averages with broad technical weakness and pressure, facing a likely sideways-to-lower range of $370 to $395 next week.

AI hardware expansion as Tesla and SpaceX launch Terafab initiative

Tesla and SpaceX have launched the Terafab project—a $20–25 billion AI chip factory complex in Austin, Texas, with production targeted to support Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Elon Musk announced the initiative on March 21, highlighting chip manufacturing for vehicles, humanoid robots, and AI-driven data centers, aiming to strengthen autonomous and AI hardware capabilities. The project is accompanied by increased hiring of AI chip designers at Tesla and reported advances in robotics.

Bearish momentum dominates as oversold signals clash with intraday rally

Momentum signals are weak, with both MACD and ADX on D1 indicating a negative bias. RSI is near oversold (31.87), and both Stoch RSI and CCI confirm deep oversold conditions, suggesting downside exhaustion. BBP is deeply negative and classified as oversold, showing clear dominance by sellers in the current session. Despite today's strong upward move (up $15.18, +4.13%) and a bullish gap at the open, TSLA is trading near the high of its intraday range ($383.98), reflecting high volatility and strength toward session highs. Oscillators hint at a possible short-term recovery, but the overall momentum trend remains bearish, creating notable divergence between persistent selling pressure and today's bounce.

Limited rebound odds as technicals reinforce downside risk for TSLA

For the coming week, the expected price range is $370 to $395, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of further price gains is very low (less than 20%), making a drop more likely. The baseline scenario is a sideways corridor near current levels, with sellers limiting upside attempts. A bullish scenario would see a sustained break above $400.40, opening a test of higher resistance if momentum shifts; conversely, a drop below $370 could accelerate losses and confirm an extended downtrend, given the prevailing negative technical backdrop.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Tesla (TSLA) navigating a challenging technical landscape but supported by strong innovation. He believes the Terafab project highlights solid long-term fundamentals and corporate ambition, even as short-term momentum remains bearish. Price action suggests a low probability of sustained gains unless TSLA breaks decisively above $400.40. "Despite current weakness, strategic investments in AI and robotics can drive a turnaround if sentiment shifts," says Karapetjanc.

Earlier, analysts noted that Tesla faced continued technical weakness and a prevailing bearish trend despite positive news or major strategic initiatives. The current setup reinforces this outlook, with persistent selling pressure and oversold signals suggesting that traders should watch for a potential breakdown below $370 as a trigger for extended downside risk.

Source of Data: TSLA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.