New EU tariffs send Tesla stock lower by 2.71%

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Tesla drops 2.71% to $343.13 today

Highlights

Expiration of the US federal EV tax credit in 2025 and new EU tariffs are reducing Tesla’s demand and government support in key markets.
Brand challenges, CEO controversies, and higher operating costs are intensifying sales pressure and limiting flexibility in Europe and Canada.
TSLA trades below major moving averages with dominant bearish momentum, expected to consolidate between $338.00 and $350.00 amid weak rebound prospects.

Brand setbacks and tariffs dampen demand across US, Europe, and Canada

The expiration of the US federal electric vehicle tax credit at the end of 2025 has removed a key incentive for domestic buyers, limiting Tesla’s government support in its largest market. In Europe, new EU trade policy set a 7.8% tariff on Tesla vehicles imported from China, while other Chinese automakers received tariffs above 35%. Brand headwinds and political controversy surrounding CEO Elon Musk have weighed on sales and operations in Europe, accompanied by increasing operational costs. In Canada, counter-tariffs on US-built automobiles have sharply increased Tesla vehicle prices, prompting inventory and import adjustments.

Oversold signals and resistance cap TSLA amid persistent bearish momentum

TSLA is positioned below its SMA-20 ($381.67), SMA-50 ($401.56), and SMA-200 ($397.09), indicating sustained short-, medium-, and long-term selling pressure. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $381.52 acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators, including MACD and ADX on the daily chart, remain in sell territory with weak readings. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI all suggest oversold or near-oversold conditions, though BBP reflects continued seller dominance intraday, and the AO is neutral. TSLA opened below the prior close, producing a gap down, and price action sits just above today’s low amid elevated volatility, confirming sustained bearish momentum since the open.

Limited rebound prospects as bearish bias shapes short-term range

The expected trading range for the next five sessions is $338.00 – $350.00, reflecting typical short-term volatility and aligning the price near current levels. The chance of a short-term rebound is low (under 20%), making additional weakness more probable. The baseline scenario sees TSLA consolidating between $338.00 and $350.00. Any upside will encounter resistance at $350.00 – $355.00, and a break below $338.00 could prompt further declines, as short- and medium-term signals remain bearish.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Tesla continuing to trade under firm downside pressure after losing key support levels on all major moving averages. He believes broader fundamental and sentiment challenges — such as evaporating tax credits, tighter EU tariffs, and political issues — will keep demand weak. Technical signals confirm sellers remain in control, while momentum and price action suggest little chance of a near-term rebound. "Base case remains consolidation between $338.00 and $350.00, and I remain cautious unless TSLA can reclaim resistance levels."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tesla’s technical outlook was neutral-to-bearish, reflecting persistent downside momentum. With the recent expiration of key EV incentives and an escalation of trade barriers, risks have shifted further to the downside, making sustained consolidation or a potential move below $338.00 the primary scenario to monitor in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: TSLA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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