US-China trade tensions keep TSLA flat

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Tesla slides 0.44% to $344.07 today

Highlights

New U.S. and European tariffs on Chinese-made EVs, including those from Giga Shanghai, increase operational risks for Tesla and complicate its export strategy.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East is straining Tesla’s supply chains and elevating post-pandemic input costs for critical vehicle components.
TSLA trades under key moving averages with bearish momentum, a projected five-day range of $340.00–$352.00, and limited upside potential below immediate resistance.

Tariffs and supply chain risks weigh on Tesla’s global operations

Trade tensions between the United States and China have placed Tesla’s Giga Shanghai operations at risk, with the introduction of new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles exposing the company to heightened regulatory scrutiny and potential supply chain disruptions. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting global supply chains, compounding post-pandemic cost pressures for Tesla and threatening the stability of critical components sourcing. Ambiguity around the future of U.S. federal electric vehicle incentives relates to potential changes in political leadership, affecting Tesla’s domestic sales strategy. In Europe, new tariffs on Chinese-manufactured EVs, including those made at Giga Shanghai, have forced the company to increasingly depend on Giga Berlin for regional deliveries.

Bearish momentum confirmed as all signals align with seller control

Momentum indicators reinforce bearish sentiment: both daily MACD and ADX point to seller control, with MACD reading deeply negative and ADX modestly elevated. RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are hovering in oversold territory, signaling extended weakness but not yet a reversal, while BBP’s negative value supports continued seller dominance intraday. AO also aligns with this trend, showing a sell signal. Today’s session opened with almost no gap from the previous close, and the price currently trades near the lower end of its intraday range ($342.75 — $350.24) after slipping 0.44%. Volatility is moderate, and the intraday tone is weak as sellers maintain pressure after the open. All momentum and oscillator signals are synchronized to the downside, confirming the bearish intraday action.

Downside favored as low probability of breakout constrains TSLA

For the next five trading days, the anticipated range for TSLA is $340.00 to $352.00. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further downside movement more likely. The baseline scenario favors the price oscillating in a sideways corridor just above $340.00. A bullish scenario would require a break above immediate resistance at $376.81, opening the way toward the $360.00 — $370.00 area, while a bearish case could see a sustained move below $340.00 and expose additional weakness toward the $330.00 region if selling intensifies.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees continued downside pressure on Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) as the price remains well below all key SMAs and momentum indicators confirm seller control. He notes that persistent macro risks, from trade tensions to supply chain disruptions, further undermine any potential for a bullish reversal. The baseline expectation is for TSLA to trade sideways above $340.00, with very limited probability of a meaningful rebound. "Unless the price reclaims $376.81, I see no justification for long exposure in this environment."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tesla was experiencing sustained bearish momentum amid persistent negative technical signals and external operational risks. The current analysis reinforces this outlook with freshly synchronized downside momentum and heightened trade uncertainty, making a decisive break below the $340 level a key risk to monitor for further weakness.

Source of Data: TSLA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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