Natural gas attempts to form bottom near key support
U.S. natural gas prices (Henry Hub) have fallen by roughly 25-28% since the start of 2026, trading near $2.6-$2.7 per MMBtu amid record production, high inventories, and mild weather that has reduced heating demand. Storage levels in the United States are rising faster than average, while above-normal temperature forecasts through mid-April continue to support soft demand.
At the same time, global gas demand in 2026 is accelerating to nearly 2% annual growth, with the strongest expansion coming from China and the rest of Asia. LNG supply is also increasing, with the United States, Canada, and Mexico accounting for a large share of new output. Over the next few years, this additional supply could continue to weigh on prices and keep pressure on the market.
Weather and geopolitical factors are likely to drive periodic spikes in volatility, creating room for both downside and upside moves in gas prices. Tensions related to the conflict involving Iran are offering moderate support, but so far they have not become a driver of a sustained rally.
European gas storage remains above average, while LNG deliveries, including volumes from new U.S. export capacity and some sanction-circumvention flows, are helping keep the market balanced, though still highly sensitive to political headlines.
At the moment, NATGAS is trading near strong support around $2.7, where a temporary base may form and bulls could try to regain control. Even so, any recovery toward the $3.2-$3.6 area may still be viewed as a selling opportunity.
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