US Dollar vs Philippine Peso holds steady as updated foreign investment rules expand sector access

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US Dollar vs Philippine Peso dips 0.66%

Highlights

President Marcos Jr. updated the Philippine Regular Foreign Investment Negative List, changing rules for foreign ownership in critical sectors such as telecom, utilities, and land.
The executive order aligns with the Foreign Investments Act of 1991, impacting security, health, and SME protections as markets remain under broad selling pressure.
USD/PHP trades near $59.60 under short-term selling but within a projected $58.80–$60.20 range; technicals favor a high probability of sideways-to-bullish movement if resistance at $60.01 is cleared.

Regulatory reforms pressure peso amid industry restrictions and FA flows

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued Executive Order 113 on April 13, 2026, updating the Philippine Regular Foreign Investment Negative List. The order set new conditions for foreign equity participation in sectors including telecommunications, public utilities, and land ownership. The update followed the Foreign Investments Act of 1991 and affected industries such as security, defense, health, and small- and medium-scale enterprise protection, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Mixed technicals weigh as seller momentum tests near-term support

Technical analysis indicates a mixed outlook for USD/PHP. The price trades just above the SMA-50 and is supported by the SMA-200, while staying below key short-term levels such as the SMA-20 and the Ichimoku Kijun, with $60.01 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators are divided: the MACD on both daily and weekly charts remains in Buy mode, but the ADX points to weak trend strength and a Sell signal. Daily RSI is just above neutral, Stoch RSI is neutral, CCI is in Sell, and BBP shows moderate buyer dominance; the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The currency pair is near the day’s low within a moderately volatile $59.53 – $60.13 range, showing steady seller pressure against mixed signals from momentum and oscillators.

Upside favored in high-volatility band as technical signals align

For the next five trading days, the expected volatility band is $58.80 – $60.20 for USD/PHP. Technical indicators suggest a very high probability of further upside (over 80%), with MACD, RSI, and the MA-50 on the weekly timeframe in Buy alignment, while only ADX remains bearish. The base scenario sees price moving sideways between $59.80 and $60.20. A break above immediate resistance at $60.01 would target $60.20, while a drop below $59.60 may open the way to the $58.80 support zone.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, lead analyst at Traders Union, sees near-term headwinds for USD/PHP but remains optimistic about the long-term structure. He notes that fresh regulatory reforms in the Philippines support fundamentals and investor confidence, even as short-term price action stays below key resistance. Karapetjanc believes strong macro trends and momentum indicators back a constructive bias despite current volatility. "I expect USD/PHP to move sideways to higher, with any break above $60.01 opening further upside toward $60.20 in the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that while the US Dollar vs Philippine Peso exhibited short-term volatility, its broader trend remained structurally bullish. The latest shift in the Philippines’ foreign investment policy, combined with ongoing mixed technical signals, brings added uncertainty to near-term price action, making the $60.01 resistance pivotal as a breakout level that could determine momentum in the sessions ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.