Stable trading for US Dollar vs Philippine Peso as PHP61.02 support holds

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
US Dollar vs Peso down 0.53% today

Highlights

US Dollar net long futures positions have surged over fourfold as traders positioned for ongoing economic strength.
Recent US inflation and labor market data matched forecasts, reinforcing underlying support for the Dollar despite persistent selling pressures.
USD/PHP remains under clear bearish momentum, with the pair trading below short-term resistance and expected to range between PHP61.02 and PHP61.64 with a higher probability of downside.

Speculative dollar positioning unwound as US economic data stays firm

Rabobank reported that net long US Dollar futures positioning has more than quadrupled, indicating that traders previously allocated significant speculative capital toward the currency in anticipation of supportive conditions. The same source noted that recent US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index inflation aligned with expectations, while firm labor market data was observed, both reflecting continued strength in the US economy. Together, these factors had previously supported demand for the Dollar, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum prevails as technicals show persistent selling pressure

On the H1 chart, USD/PHP remains below both the MA-20 at PHP61.60 and MA-50 at PHP61.66, with the MA-200 providing longer-term support at PHP59.53. The Ichimoku Kijun serves as immediate resistance at PHP61.58. Technical momentum is soft as the MACD and Awesome Oscillator both indicate prevailing selling pressure. ADX confirms trend clarity, while the RSI stands at 36.79 and the Stoch RSI also points to a bearish regime. The oversold reading on CCI and negative BBP both corroborate persistent seller control in the intraday frame.

Downside bias favored as consolidation signals low reversal odds

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/PHP is expected to consolidate between PHP61.02 and PHP61.64, reflecting typical volatility for the pair. The probability of a move higher is considered very low, while further downside is favored. A bullish scenario would require a break above PHP61.58 to open a recovery path, whereas a drop below PHP61.02 may accelerate losses toward additional support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, notes that recent macro fundamentals have previously supported the Dollar, but momentum has shifted. He sees ongoing selling pressure in USD/PHP, with resistance firm and technicals staying weak. The analyst believes any recovery would require a clear move above PHP61.58. Karapetjanc is constructive for the Peso in the short term. "Until USD/PHP reclaims resistance at PHP61.58, I expect sellers to stay in control and the Peso to outperform."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PHP was supported by persistent bullish momentum amid mixed technical signals and constructive economic conditions. However, the current shift toward sustained downside pressure highlights a potential change in sentiment, making a break below PHP61.02 a key risk for accelerating losses in the days ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.