U.S. labor market shifts toward healthcare and skilled-trades shortages as aging reshapes hiring

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US labor market shifts to shortages

Highlights

Home health and personal care aides are projected to add 739,800 jobs between 2024 and 2034, the largest increase of any U.S. occupation.
Median annual wages in 2024 stand at $34,900 for home health aides, $93,600 for registered nurses, and $129,210 for nurse practitioners amid persistent labor shortages.
Construction sector faces record employment but accelerated baby boomer retirements, with HVAC, electrician, and plumber average ages dropping by four to five years since 2020.

Healthcare demand and eldercare needs expand

As reported by Business Insider, economists and labor experts say aging is steadily changing employer demand across the U.S. economy, with healthcare standing out as the clearest growth area. Nela Richardson, ADP's chief economist, says the U.S. is rapidly becoming a healthcare-driven economy, while Bureau of Labor Statistics projections point to rising demand for long-term care and therapy services.

Home health and personal care aides are expected to see the largest employment increase of any occupation between 2024 and 2034, with BLS estimating an increase of 739,800 jobs. Registered nurses and nurse practitioners are also expected to post strong gains, although healthcare employers continue to face shortages, turnover, and pressure to build a stronger talent pipeline.

Susan Grant, chief clinical officer at Symplr, says labor costs remain a major issue for health systems, with staffing efficiency and turnover drawing intense attention. Pay also varies widely across these roles, with median annual wages in 2024 at $34,900 for home health and personal care aides, $93,600 for registered nurses, and $129,210 for nurse practitioners.

The shift is also increasing pressure on unpaid and informal care. BLS data based on 2023 and 2024 figures show 38 million Americans provided some form of unpaid eldercare, and Richardson says that informal neighborhood-based care is also likely to grow as communities respond to rising needs outside formal institutions.

Construction and trades face retirement pressure

Richardson says no part of the labor market is insulated from aging demographics, and construction is one of the clearest examples outside healthcare. Even as construction employment reaches a record level in March, the sector is losing experienced baby boomer workers faster than younger workers are entering the field.

Ed Brady, president and CEO of Home Builders Institute, says the imbalance is worsening labor shortages and also eroding productivity, quality, and speed as seasoned tradespeople leave the workforce. ADP data cited in the report show the average age of HVAC workers fell to 37 in June 2025 from 41 in June 2020, while electricians dropped to 39 from 44 and plumbers to 36 from 40, a change Richardson says reflects retirements rather than a surge of new entrants.

The result is a labor market where aging is affecting both demand and supply at the same time. While AI continues to dominate debate about the future of work, economists cited in the report say demographic pressure is already driving hiring needs, wage questions, and workforce gaps across major sectors.

In our earlier article on the U.S. Department of Labor’s updated disability financial literacy toolkit, we covered how the expanded guidance is designed to help disabled workers strengthen career planning, money management, and long-term independence. We also noted that the update adds practical resources for families, caregivers, and service providers—aimed at improving employment outcomes and retirement security through clearer planning tools and benefit-related guidance.

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