Barclays stock price forecast: GBX 408–GBX 410 support as BARC slides 2.99%

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Barclays drops 2.99% to GBX414.60 today

Highlights

Barclays delivered a return on tangible equity of 13.5% and earnings per share of 14.1 pence in Q1 2026, launching a new £500 million share buyback.
Group income grew 6% year-on-year to £8.2 billion, but higher credit impairment charges included a £200 million provision for a single exposure.
Shares are under persistent selling pressure, trading below short-term averages, but strong weekly technicals suggest an 80% chance of recovery within the GBX 405–425 range.

Buyback and earnings lift sentiment as credit provisions weigh on stock

Barclays reported first-quarter 2026 results, booking a return on tangible equity of 13.5% and earnings per share of 14.1 pence. The bank launched a new £500 million share buyback programme after completing the preceding £1 billion buyback. In the same period, Barclays repurchased and cancelled 26.8 million ordinary shares, reducing issued capital, while group income rose 6% year-on-year to £8.2 billion and UK corporate bank income grew by 10%. A £200 million provision for a single company exposure contributed to a rise in credit impairment charges, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Oversold signals emerge as price tests multi-period moving averages

Technically, BARC is trading below the SMA-20 (GBX 424.70) and SMA-50 (GBX 424.50), but just above the SMA-200 (GBX 414.39). The Ichimoku Kijun level is at GBX 408.15, now acting as immediate resistance. Intraday trading has ranged from GBX 409.50 to GBX 419.55. MACD displays strong buy signals, daily ADX is neutral and low, RSI stands at 50.88, and both Stoch RSI (11.26) and CCI (9.31) read oversold; BBP remains in oversold territory, indicating seller dominance and potential for a short-term technical rebound if support persists.

Sideways trade expected as volatility persists near pivotal support

Near term, typical volatility places BARC in a band between GBX 405 and GBX 425 over the coming week. The baseline expectation is for sideways action around current levels amid continued volatility. A decisive move above GBX 419.50 could trigger a retest of 425 and start a recovery, while a break under the 408 – 410 support zone may open room for declines toward major support at 405.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Barclays' performance remains under selling pressure despite solid earnings and a new buyback programme. He sees technical signals mixed, with price clinging just above the SMA-200 and strong oversold readings suggesting possible short-term relief, but no clear bull momentum. The base case is cautious, with GBX 405–425 as a near-term range and risk of further downside if support fails. "Until Barclays decisively reclaims resistance above GBX 419.50, I remain defensive and see limited upside for now," Kharitonov says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Barclays' structured finance activities, such as its involvement in UK mortgage-backed securities, present heightened portfolio and refinancing risks amid a complex transaction structure. Against this backdrop, Barclays' own stock now faces a technically oversold condition and compressed volatility, which puts a premium on closely monitoring the 408–410 support zone as a potential inflection point for near-term direction.

Source of Data: BARC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.