Gold price forecast: $4,698 resistance in focus as XAU gains 2.03%

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Gold jumps 2.03% today on safe-haven demand

Highlights

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict has sharply increased global energy prices, fueling strong safe-haven demand for gold.
Renewed inflation concerns and stable Federal Reserve rates have further strengthened gold's appeal amid Asian buying and ongoing geopolitical risks.
Technically, gold trades below key short- and medium-term averages with momentum bearish, likely consolidating between $4,535 and $4,865 barring a breakout above $4,700.

Safe-haven demand spikes on Hormuz closure and Fed rate caution

The indefinite closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran conflict has triggered a sharp jump in global energy prices and stoked renewed inflation expectations, significantly boosting demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Geopolitical instability has led to a surge in physical gold buying among Asian investors who are directly affected by energy shocks and supply chain disruptions. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve opted to keep interest rates steady on Wednesday but highlighted the risk of further hikes if inflation pressures persist, while rising US bond yields and a strong dollar continue to impact gold's opportunity cost and international demand.

Bearish momentum intensifies as XAU tests resistance against oversold signals

Technically, XAU has encountered strong resistance at the Ichimoku Kijun line of $4,698.12, with the SMA-20 ($4,736.93) and SMA-50 ($4,732.84) forming additional overhead barriers. The SMA-200 at $4,554.90 represents the main zone of long-term support. Momentum indicators are decisively bearish: the MACD and ADX signal strong selling pressure, the RSI is at 35.10, and the CCI is deep in oversold territory. Stoch RSI and a negative Bull/Bear Power (BBP) reading indicate ongoing seller control, and the Awesome Oscillator has also turned strongly negative. The gap-up open and high session volatility highlight renewed activity, but deeply oversold oscillators point to a risk of sharp short-term mean reversion.

Downside bias prevails amid persistent selling and broad trading range

For the next five trading days, gold is expected to fluctuate within a typical volatility band from $4,535 to $4,865. Downward movement remains the most probable scenario, given persistent daily selling pressures, with a break below $4,535 likely to accelerate declines further. The baseline expectation is for sideways consolidation in a wide range, anchored by long-term support but capped by overhead resistance. Only a decisive move and retention above $4,700 would shift the outlook toward a bullish scenario.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees gold’s renewed volatility as a clear reaction to escalating geopolitical risk and global inflation concerns. He believes the surge in physical demand from Asia signals strong safe-haven sentiment despite ongoing pressure from higher US yields and a firm dollar. The expert expects price action to remain volatile, anchored by macro drivers and responsive to further energy or policy shocks. Karapetjanc maintains a constructive outlook, but notes that only a clear break above $4,700 would flip the structure bullish. "If geopolitical risks intensify and gold decisively clears $4,700, I would expect a renewed upward trend to develop swiftly."

Previously it was reported that gold was experiencing range-bound trading amid persistent downside momentum and macroeconomic uncertainty. The surge in safe-haven demand following the Strait of Hormuz closure adds a significant geopolitical tailwind, making a potential volatility spike beyond the expected range a key risk to monitor in the coming days.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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