Gold price forecast: $4,700 resistance as XAU climbs on inflation concerns

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Gold gains 1.97% today at $4,633

Highlights

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged sustains elevated yields, dampening gold’s attraction versus interest-bearing assets.
Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation concerns continue to influence institutional positioning and support hedging demand for gold.
Gold currently faces persistent short-term bearish technicals despite an oversold state, with an expected trading range of $4,540 to $4,820 next week.

Elevated yields curb gold demand as Fed maintains policy stance

The Federal Reserve's latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged continues to shape the monetary environment for gold, maintaining elevated yields that can influence its appeal as a non-interest-bearing asset. This steady policy stance impacts institutional allocation and hedging demand, with market participants adjusting positions based on ongoing central bank signals. Secondary macroeconomic developments, such as heightened inflation concerns from Middle East tensions, are also influencing expectations and market structure for gold.

Oversold signals deepen as resistance caps short-term rebounds

Technically, XAU trades below the SMA-20 at $4,736.93 and SMA-50 at $4,732.84, but remains above the SMA-200 at $4,554.90. The Ichimoku Kijun on the daily chart is positioned at $4,698.12, serving as immediate overhead resistance. Momentum indicators on D1, including MACD and ADX, continue to signal a sell bias. RSI stands at 35.10, CCI at –247.46, and both Stoch RSI and BBP readings indicate a pronounced oversold state. The Awesome Oscillator confirms the ongoing downtrend. Notably, while today's session opened with a minor upward gap and strong movement toward intraday highs, a divergence persists between heavy oversold readings and weak longer-term trend signals.

Range-bound trade expected amid absent directional catalyst

In the short term, typical volatility could see gold trade in a band between $4,540 and $4,820 over the coming week. Should XAU break above the $4,700 mark, momentum could carry it toward resistance in the $4,820 zone. Conversely, a move below $4,554 would expose the asset to additional downside, with $4,540 acting as the next support. The overall outlook favors ranging behavior between these levels unless a clear catalyst triggers a directional breakout.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that the Federal Reserve’s steady policy signals a supportive backdrop for gold. He believes the sustained high yields shape institutional and hedging flows, even as technicals remain weak. Karapetjanc sees opportunity for a rebound if price reclaims the $4,700 area, though near-term action likely stays in a range. "For now, robust macro support outweighs technical setbacks — I expect gold to remain resilient and am watching for upward momentum to follow if $4,700 breaks."

Earlier, analysts noted that sustained downside momentum amid macroeconomic uncertainty was weighing on gold prices as traders awaited decisive signals from central banks. The latest rebound, despite persistent oversold conditions and renewed geopolitical risks, suggests traders should monitor for a breakout beyond $4,700 as a potential inflection point for directional momentum.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.